{
 "meta": {
  "title": "GPLab government scorecard: method",
  "version": "1.0",
  "date": "2026-10-02",
  "status": "DRAFT methodology: scores are open for public review (12 Oct to 11 Nov 2026); an independent expert panel will follow. Weights approved 2 Oct 2026. Weights and thresholds are GPLab design choices, not empirical estimates.",
  "weights_status": "approved 2 Oct 2026",
  "lens": "market-leaning (see method.md section 'Our lens')",
  "funding_and_independence": {
   "statement": "GPLab is currently self-funded by its founders. We take no money from political parties, candidates or government bodies, and any future funders will be listed here.",
   "status": "Confirmed (approved 2026-10-02)",
   "proposed_commitments": [
    "Any funder, grant or sponsor named with year and amount band",
    "No funder, partner or advertiser sees scores before publication or influences indicators, weights, thresholds or scores",
    "Material funding changes disclosed before the next scores are published"
   ]
  },
  "corrections": {
   "contact": "hello@thegplab.org",
   "subject_line": "Correction: [card or page name]",
   "acknowledge_within_working_days": 3,
   "policy": "Confirmed factual errors are corrected on the page with a dated correction note; scores are never silently changed."
  },
  "review_panel": {
   "status": "Not yet appointed: an independent expert panel will follow the open public review phase. Until then, policy credibility and institutional reforms are labelled Draft, open for public review.",
   "size": 2,
   "composition": "Two external reviewers with differing economic views (e.g. one market-leaning, one heterodox/developmental/state-led); one-year renewable terms; same-tradition substitute if a reviewer steps down or is recused",
   "scope": [
    "policy_credibility",
    "institutional_reform"
   ],
   "process": "GPLab publishes a dated, sourced evidence list per government before scoring; each reviewer scores both pillars 0-4 independently and blind to the other; every point cites an evidence item; new evidence must be dated and sourced and is added to the public list for both reviewers",
   "conflict_of_interest": {
    "current_roles_barred": "No current party, campaign or government role (elected/appointed office, federal or state posts, CBN or regulators, government advisory councils/committees); taking one means stepping down",
    "past_roles": "Disclosed in writing and published in the bio, with relevant boards, consultancies and media roles",
    "recusal": "No scoring of any government the reviewer served or formally advised (incl. that leader's foundation/office); a same-tradition substitute scores it and the card says so",
    "renewal": "Declarations renewed each annual cycle"
   },
   "disagreement": {
    "scale": "0-4 per pillar per government",
    "threshold_points": 1,
    "within_threshold": "Average used; both scores shown in card notes",
    "above_threshold": "Reconciliation note: each reviewer states the evidence behind the score and may revise once, citing evidence; note published",
    "unresolved": "Both scores published side by side, average used, card labelled 'Panel split'; GPLab casts no deciding vote"
   },
   "publication": "Reviewer names, short bios (~100 words), declared interests and recusals published on the method page; each card lists who scored it and the date"
  },
  "judgement_pillars_status": "Draft, open for public review",
  "public_review": {
   "window": "30 days: 12 Oct 2026 to 11 Nov 2026",
   "how_to_challenge": "Challenge this score form on each government scorecard, or email hello@thegplab.org with the subject \"Score challenge: [Gov] [part]\"",
   "log": "review.html",
   "next_step": "Independent expert panel (not yet appointed)"
  },
  "changelog": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-02",
    "change": "Weights approved."
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-02",
    "change": "Scores v1 published for all 15 governments (12 scored, Tinubu's interim; 3 too short to score). Credibility, reforms and composite scores are drafts, open for public review."
   }
  ]
 },
 "pillars": {
  "macro": 0.5,
  "policy_credibility": 0.25,
  "institutional_reform": 0.25
 },
 "indicators": [
  {
   "id": "inflation",
   "pillar": "macro",
   "weight": 0.1,
   "label": "Inflation",
   "measure": "Average annual CPI inflation over the scored years",
   "unit": "%",
   "source_ids": [
    "WDI_CPI"
   ],
   "source_series": "WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG",
   "scoring": {
    "type": "linear",
    "score_0_at": 35,
    "score_100_at": 5,
    "direction": "lower is better"
   },
   "cross_check": "NBS monthly CPI (headline y/y); IMF WEO PCPIPCH"
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "pillar": "macro",
   "weight": 0.1,
   "label": "Real GDP growth",
   "measure": "Average annual real GDP growth over the scored years",
   "unit": "%",
   "source_ids": [
    "WDI_GDP"
   ],
   "source_series": "WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG",
   "scoring": {
    "type": "linear",
    "score_0_at": 0,
    "score_100_at": 7,
    "direction": "higher is better"
   },
   "cross_check": "NBS rebased series (2019 prices) for 2021+; flag differences"
  },
  {
   "id": "fx",
   "pillar": "macro",
   "weight": 0.1,
   "label": "Naira stability",
   "measure": "Annualised % change in the official N/$ annual average rate from the first to the last scored year; the end-of-tenure parallel premium is shown alongside where a dated quote exists",
   "unit": "% per year",
   "source_ids": [
    "WDI_FX",
    "WB_SAP_T21"
   ],
   "source_series": "WDI PA.NUS.FCRF",
   "scoring": {
    "type": "linear",
    "score_0_at": 25,
    "score_100_at": 0,
    "direction": "less depreciation is better"
   },
   "note": "An official rate held far below the market (rationing) would score well on this alone. That is why the parallel premium is reported next to it and feeds the credibility pillar."
  },
  {
   "id": "debt",
   "pillar": "macro",
   "weight": 0.1,
   "label": "Public debt",
   "measure": "Change in general-government gross debt/GDP from the first to the last scored year, in percentage points per year",
   "unit": "pp of GDP per year",
   "source_ids": [
    "IMF_DEBT"
   ],
   "source_series": "IMF WEO GGXWDG_NGDP (1990+)",
   "scoring": {
    "type": "linear",
    "score_0_at": 3,
    "score_100_at": -2,
    "direction": "falling debt is better"
   },
   "pre_1990": "External debt/GDP (WDI-derived) is used, labelled as not comparable"
  },
  {
   "id": "reserves",
   "pillar": "macro",
   "weight": 0.1,
   "label": "Reserve buffer",
   "measure": "Total reserves in months of imports at the end of the last scored year",
   "unit": "months",
   "source_ids": [
    "WDI_RES_MO",
    "WDI_RES"
   ],
   "source_series": "WDI FI.RES.TOTL.MO",
   "scoring": {
    "type": "linear",
    "score_0_at": 2,
    "score_100_at": 8,
    "direction": "higher is better"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "credibility",
   "pillar": "policy_credibility",
   "weight": 0.25,
   "label": "Policy credibility",
   "measure": "Panel rating 0-4 on four evidence questions: (1) Did the central bank finance the deficit (e.g. Ways & Means beyond legal limits)? (2) Were there multiple exchange rates or a large parallel premium? (3) Were major announced reforms reversed within 12 months? (4) Were budgets broadly implemented as passed? Each 'no problem' answer = 1 point.",
   "unit": "0-4 -> 0/25/50/75/100",
   "source_ids": [],
   "scoring": {
    "type": "ordinal",
    "map": {
     "0": 0,
     "1": 25,
     "2": 50,
     "3": 75,
     "4": 100
    }
   },
   "evidence_rule": "Each point must cite at least one primary or reputable secondary source; disputed points are scored 0.5 and explained."
  },
  {
   "id": "institutions",
   "pillar": "institutional_reform",
   "weight": 0.25,
   "label": "Institutional reforms",
   "measure": "Panel rating 0-4: number of durable, market-strengthening institutional reforms (laws or structures still in force 5+ years later, or clearly durable for current governments), e.g. debt restructuring with lasting rules, bank-capital regimes, tax-administration laws, sector liberalisation, independent regulators. 4 = four or more such reforms; reforms later reversed do not count.",
   "unit": "0-4 -> 0/25/50/75/100",
   "source_ids": [],
   "scoring": {
    "type": "ordinal",
    "map": {
     "0": 0,
     "1": 25,
     "2": 50,
     "3": 75,
     "4": 100
    }
   },
   "evidence_rule": "List each counted reform with a dated source; a second reviewer checks the list."
  }
 ],
 "rules": {
  "scored_years": "A calendar year is scored for the government that held office for at least 183 days of it. Annual data cannot be split by month, so the remaining months are credited to whichever government held the majority of the year.",
  "minimum_tenure": "Governments with fewer than 2 scored years (Ironsi 1966, Shonekan 1993, Abubakar 1998-99) get no score of any kind: factual card only, labelled 'Too short to score' (the only label used). Murtala alone held no scored year; Our timeline merges him with Obasanjo (scored 1976-79).",
  "ongoing": "An ongoing government (Tinubu) is shown as 'Interim score', using completed calendar years only, and is re-scored each year.",
  "military_vs_civilian": "The same economic indicators apply to both. The scorecard does not rate democracy or human rights; each card carries a 'Type: military / civilian' label and links to dedicated political-rights measures (e.g. Freedom House). No bonus or penalty is applied for type.",
  "oil_context": "Not adjusted inside the score. Each card shows an Oil context badge: average Energy Institute crude price over the scored years vs the average of the previous 5 years. Tailwind if more than 20% higher, headwind if more than 20% lower, otherwise neutral. Readers see both the raw score and the oil context.",
  "other_shocks": "Global or domestic shocks (2008-09 crisis, 2020 pandemic, wars) are noted on the card with a source; they are not adjusted for.",
  "rounding": "Indicator scores are rounded to whole numbers; the composite is rounded to the nearest 1; ties are shown as ties.",
  "missing_data": "If an indicator is missing, the remaining macro weights are re-scaled proportionally and the card says 'Partial data'. No value is imputed."
 },
 "precedents": [
  {
   "name": "Heritage Index of Economic Freedom",
   "practice": "12 components scored 0-100, grouped in 4 pillars, equally weighted",
   "source": "HERITAGE_METHOD"
  },
  {
   "name": "Fraser Economic Freedom of the World",
   "practice": "5 areas (incl. Sound Money) on a 0-10 scale",
   "source": "FRASER_APPROACH"
  },
  {
   "name": "Ibrahim Index of African Governance",
   "practice": "Min-max normalisation to 0-100; equal-weight averaging of categories/sub-categories/indicators",
   "source": "IIAG_METHOD"
  },
  {
   "name": "Freedom House, Freedom in the World",
   "practice": "25 indicators scored 0-4 by analysts with review; political rights max 40, civil liberties max 60",
   "source": "FH_METHOD"
  }
 ],
 "short_tenure_rule": "Fewer than two scored calendar years (183-day rule) -> 'Too short to score' factual card, no score",
 "v1_scoring_guidance": {
  "q2_large_persistent": "Parallel premium >20% (annual average) in at least half of the scored years with data; simultaneous multiple official rates = no",
  "no_evidence": "0.5 under the disputed rule, flagged 'Evidence gap'",
  "ownership_mandates": "Indigenisation 1972, Land Use 1978, Local Content 2010: listed, not counted (panel may decide otherwise)",
  "debt_series": "IMF GGXWDG_NGDP when it covers both end years; otherwise WDI external debt/GDP at both ends (from 1970, 'not comparable'); never spliced; pre-1970 missing",
  "status": "Draft, open for public review; staff drafts until the panel (section 10) is appointed"
 },
 "sources": {
  "WDI_CPI": {
   "id": "WDI_CPI",
   "title": "World Bank WDI API, Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)",
   "date": "2026-07-13",
   "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?date=1980:2025&format=json&per_page=100",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "WDI_GDP": {
   "id": "WDI_GDP",
   "title": "World Bank WDI API, GDP growth (annual %), NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)",
   "date": "2026-07-13",
   "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?date=1980:2025&format=json&per_page=100",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "WDI_FX": {
   "id": "WDI_FX",
   "title": "World Bank WDI API, Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)",
   "date": "2026-07-13",
   "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?date=1980:2025&format=json&per_page=100",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "IMF_DEBT": {
   "id": "IMF_DEBT",
   "title": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)",
   "date": "2026-10-01",
   "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "WDI_RES_MO": {
   "id": "WDI_RES_MO",
   "title": "World Bank WDI API, Total reserves in months of imports, FI.RES.TOTL.MO, Nigeria",
   "date": "2026-07-13",
   "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?date=1960:2025&format=json&per_page=100",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "WDI_RES": {
   "id": "WDI_RES",
   "title": "World Bank WDI API, Total reserves (includes gold, current US$), FI.RES.TOTL.CD, and Total reserves in months of imports, FI.RES.TOTL.MO, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)",
   "date": "2026-07-13",
   "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?date=1960:2025&format=json&per_page=100",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "EI_OIL": {
   "id": "EI_OIL",
   "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)",
   "date": "2026",
   "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "WB_SAP_T21": {
   "id": "WB_SAP_T21",
   "title": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program' (13 May 1994), Table 2.1 official vs parallel N/$ averages 1981-92, paras 1.15, 2.2-2.9, 7.4 and Statistical Table 9 (parallel US$/N 1977-92); OCR text",
   "date": "1994-05-13",
   "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "PT_GDP_Q2_2026": {
   "id": "PT_GDP_Q2_2026",
   "title": "Premium Times, 31 Aug 2026, 'Nigeria's economy grows 4.43% in Q2 2026 - NBS' (annual: 2021 0.95%, 2022 4.32%, 2023 3.04%, 2024 3.38%, 2025 3.87%; rebased 2019 prices)",
   "date": "2026-08-31",
   "url": "https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/906587-nigerias-economy-grows-4-43-in-q2-2026-nbs.html",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "HERITAGE_METHOD": {
   "id": "HERITAGE_METHOD",
   "title": "Heritage Foundation, 2026 Index of Economic Freedom, Methodology (12 freedoms, each 0-100, four pillars, equally weighted)",
   "date": "2026",
   "url": "https://static.heritage.org/index/pdf/2026/2026_indexofeconomicfreedom_methodology.pdf",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "FRASER_APPROACH": {
   "id": "FRASER_APPROACH",
   "title": "Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom of the World - 'Approach' (five areas, 0-10 scale)",
   "date": "accessed 2026-10-01",
   "url": "https://efotw.org/economic-freedom/approach",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "IIAG_METHOD": {
   "id": "IIAG_METHOD",
   "title": "Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2024 Ibrahim Index of African Governance - Methodology (min-max normalisation to 0-100 over the full period; equal-weight averaging of categories/sub-categories/indicators)",
   "date": "2024-10",
   "url": "https://assets.iiag.online/2024/2024-IIAG-methodology_EN.pdf",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "FH_METHOD": {
   "id": "FH_METHOD",
   "title": "Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2026 Methodology (25 indicators scored 0-4: political rights max 40, civil liberties max 60)",
   "date": "2026-03",
   "url": "https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/FIW26%20Methodology.pdf",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "FH_FAQ": {
   "id": "FH_FAQ",
   "title": "Freedom House, Freedom in the World FAQ",
   "date": "accessed 2026-10-01",
   "url": "https://freedomhouse.org/reports/freedom-world/faq-freedom-world",
   "accessed": "2026-10-01"
  }
 }
}