{ "meta": { "version": "1.0-draft", "date": "2026-10-02", "short_tenure_rule": "Fewer than two scored calendar years (183-day rule) -> 'Too short to score': factual card, no score (§3).", "data_vintage": { "WDI": "live API pulls saved 2026-10-02 (lastupdated 2026-07-13)", "oil": "Energy Institute via OWID" }, "title": "GPLab government scorecards: scores v1", "status": "Economic outcome scores are computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data. Credibility, reforms and composite scores are drafts, open for public review; an independent expert panel will follow. Too-short governments carry no score.", "weights": "economic outcomes 50% (5 x 10%), policy credibility 25%, institutional reforms 25%; approved 2 Oct 2026" }, "cards": [ { "id": "balewa", "name": "Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (Prime Minister)", "years": "1960-1966", "in_office": "1960-10-01 to 1966-01-15", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "1961-1965 (5)", "labels": [ "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review", "Partial data", "Thin data" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 88, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 100, "growth": 65, "fx": 100 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 2.76, "avg_growth_pct": 4.54, "fx_official_start_end": "0.7143 -> 0.7143", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 0.0, "debt_series": "GAP", "reserves_months_end": "GAP" }, "indicators_used": 3, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Partial data", "Debt missing: no debt/GDP series covers the first scored year (WDI external debt starts 1970; IMF 1990)", "Reserves missing: WDI months-of-imports series starts 1977", "Naira stability uninformative: fixed official rate (WDI)", "Thin data (pre-1980)", "Evidence gap on credibility Q1/Q2/Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil neutral", "change_pct": -9, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 1.8, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 1.98, "years": "1961-1965 vs 1956-1960", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.5, "score_0_100": 62.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). There was one fixed rate and its signature reforms lasted, but no sources were found on central-bank financing, the parallel premium or budget execution (three 0.5s for evidence gaps).", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no source found on CBN lending to the federal government against the legal limits in 1961-65. The JMAS study of deficit financing starts in 1965.", "evidence": [ "DEFICIT_1965_70" ], "flag": "gap" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "One official rate throughout (WDI: 0.714 every year from 1960 to 1970). No parallel-rate data were found for these years: the CBN Bullion table starts in 1973 (with n.a. for 1973-74), and World Bank Table 9 starts in 1977. The premium cannot be checked.", "evidence": [ "WDI_FX", "CBN_BULLION_2006" ], "flag": "gap" }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Signature reforms lasted. The Lagos Stock Exchange (trading from 5 Jun 1961) and the First National Development Plan (1962-68) were still running in 1966.", "evidence": [ "LSE_1961", "nyb66" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: the 1966 Year Book carries a plan progress report, but no budget-execution data were found.", "evidence": [ "nyb66" ], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 2, "score_0_100": 50, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2 durable institution-building reforms.", "counted": [ { "date": "5 Jun 1961", "reform": "Lagos Stock Exchange begins trading under the Lagos Stock Exchange Act 1961 (today's NGX).", "evidence": [ "LSE_1961" ] }, { "date": "1964", "reform": "Investment Company of Nigeria reconstituted as the Nigerian Industrial Development Bank (merged into the Bank of Industry in 2001).", "evidence": [ "NIDB_1964" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "1961", "item": "National Provident Fund created (compulsory contributory savings). Not counted: no source was found on how long it lasted.", "evidence": [ "NPF_1961" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 72, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "A developmental reading would rate this era higher. Mkandawire argues that 'Africa has had states that were \"developmental\" in both their aspirations and economic performance', and that writing off planning came from 'an excessive levelling' of Africa's record. On that view the First Plan's state-led investment push deserves more credit than a market-leaning checklist gives it.", "sources": [ "MKANDAWIRE_2001" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "DEFICIT_1965_70", "citation": "F. Akin Olaloku, 'Deficit Financing in Nigeria, 1965-70', Journal of Modern African Studies 13(1), Mar 1975, pp.140-147 (Cambridge Core abstract/notes page)", "date": "1975-03", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/abs/deficit-financing-in-nigeria-196570/BD238ED0B5EED29DE5877CE057AC6AB0", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; abstract/notes only, full article not read" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "LSE_1961", "citation": "ThisDay, 24 Aug 2016, 'Changing Landscape of Nigeria's Capital Market' (trading began 5 Jun 1961 under the Lagos Stock Exchange Act 1961)", "date": "2016-08-24", "url": "https://www.thisdaylive.com/2016/08/24/changing-landscape-of-nigerias-capital-market/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "MKANDAWIRE_2001", "citation": "Thandika Mkandawire, 'Thinking about developmental states in Africa', Cambridge Journal of Economics 25(3), 2001, pp.289-313 (RePEc record)", "date": "2001-05", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/cambje/v25y2001i3p289-313.html" }, { "id": "NIDB_1964", "citation": "Wikipedia, 'Bank of Industry' (ICON reconstituted as NIDB in 1964; became BOI in 2001)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Industry", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary source" }, { "id": "NPF_1961", "citation": "MediaNigeria, 'History of Nigerian Capital Market' (National Provident Fund 1961)", "date": "2018-04-26", "url": "https://www.medianigeria.com/history-of-nigerian-capital-market/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary source" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?date=1980:2025&format=json&per_page=100" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "nyb66", "citation": "Daily Times, Nigeria Year Book 1966, 'National Development Plan Progress Report' (archive.org, n33)", "url": "https://archive.org/details/1966_20240528/page/n33/" } ] }, { "id": "ironsi", "name": "Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi", "years": "1966", "in_office": "1966-01-16 to 1966-07-29", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1966-1966 (1)", "labels": [ "Too short to score", "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5" ], "status": "Too short to score", "why": "Fewer than two scored calendar years under the 183-day rule (§3): 1 scored year(s) (1966). No outcome, credibility, reforms or composite score is given.", "facts": { "finance_ministers": [ "None listed for 1966 in the Wikipedia list used here (Awolowo took the post in 1967 under Gowon). Treat as unverified." ], "cbn_governors": [ "Aliyu Mai-Bornu" ], "signature_move": "No economic programme to speak of. The defining decision, Decree No. 34 (May 1966), replaced the federation with a unitary state.", "oil_price_context": "About $1.8 a barrel (nominal).", "key_actions": [ { "date": "16 Jan 1966", "action": "Takes power after the failed 15 January coup.", "sources": [ "wiki_ironsi" ] }, { "date": "May 1966", "action": "Decree No. 34 abolishes the federal structure.", "sources": [ "wiki_ironsi" ] }, { "date": "29 Jul 1966", "action": "Killed in the counter-coup.", "sources": [ "wiki_ironsi" ] } ] }, "context_data_not_scored": { "1966": { "cpi_inflation_pct": 9.69, "gdp_growth_pct": -4.25, "official_fx": 0.714285999714286, "oil_usd_bbl": 1.8 } }, "context_note": "Calendar-year data shown for context only; these years are shared with (and scored for) neighbouring governments where they held 183+ days.", "outcome": null, "credibility": null, "reforms": null, "composite": null, "sources": [ { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "wiki_ironsi", "citation": "Wikipedia, 'Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi', accessed 1 Oct 2026", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson_Aguiyi-Ironsi" } ] }, { "id": "gowon", "name": "Yakubu Gowon", "years": "1966-1975", "in_office": "1966-08-01 to 1975-07-29", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1967-1975 (9)", "labels": [ "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review", "Partial data", "Thin data" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 93, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 83, "growth": 97, "fx": 100 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 10.13, "avg_growth_pct": 6.79, "fx_official_start_end": "0.7143 -> 0.6155", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": -1.84, "debt_series": "GAP", "reserves_months_end": "GAP" }, "indicators_used": 3, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Partial data", "Debt missing: no debt/GDP series covers the first scored year (WDI external debt starts 1970; IMF 1990)", "Reserves missing: WDI months-of-imports series starts 1977", "Naira stability uninformative: fixed official rate (WDI)", "Thin data (pre-1980)", "Evidence gap on credibility Q2/Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil tailwind", "change_pct": 137, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 4.26, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 1.8, "years": "1967-1975 vs 1962-1966", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.5, "score_0_100": 62.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Reforms lasted, but war finance stretched the central-bank limits (they were raised by decree), and the FX premium and budget execution are unevidenced.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. War finance relied on the central bank: the fiduciary issue was raised from 33.5% to 50% (1967), and the Treasury Bill ceiling went from 50% of revenue to 85%, 100% and 150% (1968). The limits were raised by decree rather than breached.", "evidence": [ "DEFICIT_1965_70" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "One official rate (WDI PA.NUS.FCRF). The CBN Bullion table shows no parallel-rate data for 1973-74, so the premium cannot be checked.", "evidence": [ "WDI_FX", "CBN_BULLION_2006" ], "flag": "gap" }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Major reforms lasted: the Indigenisation Decree (in force 1974 to 1995), the naira (Jan 1973), and the NNOC (1971, folded into the NNPC in 1977).", "evidence": [ "nyb73", "NEPD_WIKI", "cbnhist", "NNPC_ACT_1977" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap. In Apr 1975 the FMG threatened states with loss of grants for 'plan distortion' (New Nigerian), which suggests weak execution, but no budget-outturn data were found.", "evidence": [ "nn750407" ], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 4, "score_0_100": 100, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "4 or more durable reforms (capped at 4).", "counted": [ { "date": "1969", "reform": "Banking Act 1969: the core bank-regulation law until the 1991 decrees replaced it.", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS" ] }, { "date": "May 1971", "reform": "Nigerian National Oil Corporation (Decree No. 18), the state oil company. Repealed and folded into the NNPC on 1 Apr 1977.", "evidence": [ "NNPC_ACT_1977" ] }, { "date": "1 Jan 1973", "reform": "Naira and kobo replace the pound (decimal currency).", "evidence": [ "cbnhist" ] }, { "date": "Mar 1973", "reform": "Capital Issues Commission set up by decree. It became the SEC in 1979.", "evidence": [ "SEC_HISTORY" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "1972", "item": "Nigerian Enterprises Promotion (Indigenisation) Decree. It lasted (repealed 1995), but it was an ownership mandate rather than a market or institution-strengthening reform. Not counted under GPLab's lens; the panel may decide otherwise.", "evidence": [ "nyb73", "NEPD_WIKI" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 87, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Developmental economists answer that a capital-scarce country should not simply save a windfall abroad. Van der Ploeg and Venables show that savings 'should be directed to accumulation of domestic private and public capital rather than foreign assets'. Infant-industry economists (Chang, 'kicking away the ladder') defend indigenisation. On this view the 1970s mistake was execution, not public investment or promotion of local firms.", "sources": [ "VDPLOEG_VENABLES_2011", "CHANG_2002" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "CHANG_2002", "citation": "Ha-Joon Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (Anthem Press, 2002)", "date": "2002", "url": "https://anthempress.com/books/kicking-away-the-ladder-pb" }, { "id": "DEFICIT_1965_70", "citation": "F. Akin Olaloku, 'Deficit Financing in Nigeria, 1965-70', Journal of Modern African Studies 13(1), Mar 1975, pp.140-147 (Cambridge Core abstract/notes page)", "date": "1975-03", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/abs/deficit-financing-in-nigeria-196570/BD238ED0B5EED29DE5877CE057AC6AB0", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; abstract/notes only, full article not read" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "NEPD_WIKI", "citation": "Wikipedia, 'Nigerian Enterprises Promotion Decree' (repealed 1995 by the NIPC Act)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Enterprises_Promotion_Decree", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary source" }, { "id": "NNPC_ACT_1977", "citation": "Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Act 1977 (No. 33), text via judy.legal (repeals the Nigerian National Oil Corporation Act 1971)", "date": "1977", "url": "https://www.judy.legal/legislation/akn/ng/act/1977/33", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "SEC_HISTORY", "citation": "SEC Nigeria, 'Who We Are' (Capital Issues Commission decree Mar 1973; SEC Decree No. 71 of 1979)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://www.sec.gov.ng/about/our-role/who-we-are/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "VDPLOEG_VENABLES_2011", "citation": "Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 'Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies', Economic Journal 121(551), 2011 (RePEc record)", "date": "2011", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v121y2011i551p1-30.html" }, { "id": "WB_SAP_PARAS", "citation": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text)", "date": "1994-05-13", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt", "note": "OCR text checked on 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?date=1980:2025&format=json&per_page=100" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "cbnhist", "citation": "CBN, 'History of Nigerian Currency' (naira introduced 1 Jan 1973)", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/currency/historycur.html" }, { "id": "nn750407", "citation": "New Nigerian, 7 Apr 1975, p.1 'FMG Goes Tough' (OCR)", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19750407-01.1.1" }, { "id": "nyb73", "citation": "Daily Times, Nigeria Year Book 1973, p.143 'The Indigenisation Decree' (archive.org, n144)", "url": "https://archive.org/details/1973_20240528_202405/page/n144" } ] }, { "id": "murtala_obasanjo", "name": "Murtala Muhammed / Olusegun Obasanjo", "years": "1975-1979", "in_office": "1975-07-29 to 1979-10-01", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1976-1979 (4)", "labels": [ "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review", "Thin data" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 51, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 56, "growth": 57, "fx": 100, "debt": 0, "reserves": 41 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 18.2, "avg_growth_pct": 4.02, "fx_official_start_end": "0.6266 -> 0.604", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": -1.22, "debt_series": "WDI external debt/GDP (not comparable with the IMF general-government series)", "debt_gdp_start_end": "3.7 -> 13.2", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 3.18, "reserves_months_end": 4.43 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Debt: external debt/GDP used (not comparable)", "Thin data (pre-1980)", "Evidence gap on credibility Q1/Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil tailwind", "change_pct": 191, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 18.09, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 6.22, "years": "1976-1979 vs 1971-1975", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.0, "score_0_100": 50.0, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Reforms lasted, but the parallel premium ran at about 59-80% in 1977-79, and central-bank financing and budget execution are unevidenced.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no source found on CBN financing against the legal limit in 1976-79.", "evidence": [], "flag": "gap" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. Large, persistent parallel premium: official US$1.550, 1.575 and 1.658 per naira vs parallel 0.976, 0.877 and 0.943 in 1977-79 (World Bank Table 9), a premium of about 59-80%.", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Reforms lasted: Operation Feed the Nation (1976) ran until it was replaced by the Green Revolution (1980). The NNPC (1977) and SEC (1979) remain.", "evidence": [ "nyb7778", "NNPC_ACT_1977", "SEC_HISTORY", "nn800523" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 1976-79.", "evidence": [], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 2, "score_0_100": 50, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2 durable reforms.", "counted": [ { "date": "1 Apr 1977", "reform": "NNPC Act 1977: NNOC merged with the petroleum ministry's regulatory arm.", "evidence": [ "NNPC_ACT_1977" ] }, { "date": "1979", "reform": "SEC Decree No. 71 of 1979 turns the Capital Issues Commission into the Securities and Exchange Commission (operating from 1980).", "evidence": [ "SEC_HISTORY" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "1978", "item": "Land Use Decree: durable, but it vested land in state governments, a contested reform from a market-leaning view. Not counted; no source was gathered for this card.", "evidence": [] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 50, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Asia's Green Revolution was state-led: Hazell (IFPRI) writes that it 'required a supporting economic and policy environment', with governments that 'actively intervene[d]'. On this view Operation Feed the Nation failed through execution and capture, not because the state was involved. The NNPC is likewise defended as the vehicle for national control of oil (Biersteker).", "sources": [ "HAZELL_2009", "BIERSTEKER_1987" ] }, "note": "Our timeline merges Murtala Mohammed (29 Jul 1975 to 13 Feb 1976) and Olusegun Obasanjo (13 Feb 1976 to 1 Oct 1979). Murtala alone held no scored calendar year (1975 went to Gowon at 210 days), so he would be 'Too short to score' on his own; the scored years 1976-79 fall under Obasanjo. Scored here as one government, as on our timeline.", "sources": [ { "id": "BIERSTEKER_1987", "citation": "Thomas J. Biersteker, Multinationals, the State, and Control of the Nigerian Economy (Princeton University Press, 1987)", "date": "1987", "url": "https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691637891/multinationals-the-state-and-control-of-the-nigerian-economy" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "HAZELL_2009", "citation": "Peter B.R. Hazell, 'The Asian Green Revolution', IFPRI Discussion Paper 911 (2009) (RePEc record)", "date": "2009", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/911.html" }, { "id": "NNPC_ACT_1977", "citation": "Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Act 1977 (No. 33), text via judy.legal (repeals the Nigerian National Oil Corporation Act 1971)", "date": "1977", "url": "https://www.judy.legal/legislation/akn/ng/act/1977/33", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "SEC_HISTORY", "citation": "SEC Nigeria, 'Who We Are' (Capital Issues Commission decree Mar 1973; SEC Decree No. 71 of 1979)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://www.sec.gov.ng/about/our-role/who-we-are/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WB_SAP_PARAS", "citation": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text)", "date": "1994-05-13", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt", "note": "OCR text checked on 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_EXTDEBT_1970", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, DT.DOD.DECT.CD (external debt stocks, US$) / NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (GDP, US$), Nigeria, 1970-2024 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/DT.DOD.DECT.CD?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "nn800523", "citation": "New Nigerian, 23 May 1980, p.23 (Green Revolution food target; OCR)", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19800523-01.1.23" }, { "id": "nyb7778", "citation": "Daily Times, Nigeria Year Book 1977-78, economic review / OFN (archive.org, n48, n52)", "url": "https://archive.org/details/nigeria-year-book-1977-78/page/n48" } ] }, { "id": "shagari", "name": "Shehu Shagari", "years": "1979-1983", "in_office": "1979-10-01 to 1983-12-31", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "1980-1983 (4)", "labels": [ "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 32, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 65, "growth": 0, "fx": 61, "debt": 32, "reserves": 0 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 15.42, "avg_growth_pct": -6.66, "fx_official_start_end": "0.5468 -> 0.7244", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 9.83, "debt_series": "WDI external debt/GDP (not comparable with the IMF general-government series)", "debt_gdp_start_end": "13.9 -> 18.1", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 1.39, "reserves_months_end": 1.01 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Debt: external debt/GDP used (not comparable)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil tailwind", "change_pct": 102, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 33.82, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 16.78, "years": "1980-1983 vs 1975-1979", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 1.5, "score_0_100": 37.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "1.5/4 (Q1 0; Q2 0; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Central-bank-financed deficits and a 64-70% parallel premium. The Green Revolution lasted, but budgets were cut mid-year by the 1982 Act.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. The deficit was financed by central-bank credit: credit to government rose by over 70% from early 1983 to end-1984 (World Bank 1994, para 6.22).", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. Parallel premium 63.6% (1980) and 70.1% (1982) (CBN Bullion). Import licences were used to ration FX.", "evidence": [ "CBN_BULLION_2006", "NN_AUSTERE_1982" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "The Green Revolution (May 1980) ran to the end of the government. The 1982 Stabilisation Act was temporary by design.", "evidence": [ "nn800523", "NN_AUSTERE_1982" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. Budgets were cut mid-year by the 1982 Economic Stabilisation (Temporary Provisions) Act, and states reported collapsing finances (Kano 1982). These were legislated changes rather than plain non-execution.", "evidence": [ "NN_AUSTERE_1982", "YB1982_KANO" ], "flag": "disputed" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 1, "score_0_100": 25, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "1 durable reform.", "counted": [ { "date": "22 Jan 1982", "reform": "Allocation of Revenue (Federation Account, etc.) Act 1982 (No. 1): the revenue-sharing law, still Cap A15 in the 2004 Laws of the Federation.", "evidence": [ "ALLOC_1982" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 31, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Structuralist economists warn that devaluing in an import-dependent economy can be contractionary (Krugman and Taylor 1978). On this view, rationing FX while oil revenue collapsed was a defensible, if costly, bridge, and the oil glut (a headwind GPLab does not adjust for) drove most of the outcome.", "sources": [ "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978", "YB1982_KANO" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "ALLOC_1982", "citation": "LawNigeria, 'Allocation of Revenue (Federation Account, etc.) Act' (1982 No. 1; commencement 22 Jan 1982; Cap A15 LFN 2004)", "date": "2025-01-20", "url": "https://lawnigeria.com/2025/01/20/allocation-of-revenue-federation-account-etc-act/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978", "citation": "Paul Krugman & Lance Taylor, 'Contractionary effects of devaluation', Journal of International Economics 8(3), 1978, pp.445-456 (RePEc record)", "date": "1978", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v8y1978i3p445-456.html" }, { "id": "NN_AUSTERE_1982", "citation": "New Nigerian, 21 Apr 1982, p.1 'Nation Goes Austere' (Economic Stabilisation Act; OCR)", "date": "1982-04-21", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19820421-01.1.1" }, { "id": "WB_SAP_PARAS", "citation": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text)", "date": "1994-05-13", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt", "note": "OCR text checked on 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_EXTDEBT_1970", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, DT.DOD.DECT.CD (external debt stocks, US$) / NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (GDP, US$), Nigeria, 1970-2024 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/DT.DOD.DECT.CD?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "YB1982_KANO", "citation": "Daily Times, Nigeria Year Book 1982, pp.215-216: Kano State 1982 budget address by Gov. Abubakar Rimi (archive.org, n216; OCR)", "date": "1982", "url": "https://archive.org/details/1982_20240528/page/n216/" }, { "id": "nn800523", "citation": "New Nigerian, 23 May 1980, p.23 (Green Revolution food target; OCR)", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19800523-01.1.23" } ] }, { "id": "buhari1", "name": "Muhammadu Buhari (military)", "years": "1984-1985", "in_office": "1983-12-31 to 1985-08-27", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1984-1985 (2)", "labels": [ "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 37, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 75, "growth": 34, "fx": 34, "debt": 38, "reserves": 2 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 12.63, "avg_growth_pct": 2.4, "fx_official_start_end": "0.7665 -> 0.8938", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 16.6, "debt_series": "WDI external debt/GDP (not comparable with the IMF general-government series)", "debt_gdp_start_end": "24.2 -> 25.3", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 1.1, "reserves_months_end": 2.13 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Debt: external debt/GDP used (not comparable)", "Evidence gap on credibility Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil neutral", "change_pct": -16, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 28.17, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 33.38, "years": "1984-1985 vs 1979-1983", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.0, "score_0_100": 50.0, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Its controls held, but the parallel premium was above 300%. Central-bank credit growth straddles both governments, and budget execution is unevidenced.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. Credit to government rose by over 70% from early 1983 to end-1984, a period that straddles Shagari and Buhari (World Bank 1994). The 1984 budget aimed at restraint.", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS", "concord84" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. Parallel premium 327.6% (1984) and 325.8% (1985) (CBN Bullion). The World Bank says the spread 'exceeded 300 percent' in 1985.", "evidence": [ "CBN_BULLION_2006", "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Its controls (universal import licensing, countertrade, the 1984 currency change) stayed in place until the 1985 coup, well over 12 months.", "evidence": [ "jprs84073", "upi840313", "upi840424", "nn850829" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 1984-85.", "evidence": [ "concord84" ], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 0, "score_0_100": 0, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "0 durable reforms.", "counted": [], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "1984-85", "item": "Import licensing for all visible imports and countertrade. Both were controls, and both were abolished or abandoned by 1986.", "evidence": [ "jprs84073", "WB_SAP_PARAS", "nn850829" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 31, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Writing in the OPEC Bulletin, Idemudia and Abdul-Malik summarised the case for countertrade: proponents 'argue that they maintain a standard of living and ensure that oil can be sold and generate revenue'. With credit closed and oil markets glutted, controls and barter were the alternative to an IMF programme the public rejected. Krugman and Taylor give the theoretical case against an immediate devaluation.", "sources": [ "IDEMUDIA_1986", "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "IDEMUDIA_1986", "citation": "T. Idemudia & M.A. Abdul-Malik, 'Nigerian oil: the case for countertrade', OPEC Bulletin 17(1), Feb 1986, pp.27-33 (OSTI/ETDEWEB abstract)", "date": "1986-02-01", "url": "https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/biblio/5474686" }, { "id": "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978", "citation": "Paul Krugman & Lance Taylor, 'Contractionary effects of devaluation', Journal of International Economics 8(3), 1978, pp.445-456 (RePEc record)", "date": "1978", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v8y1978i3p445-456.html" }, { "id": "WB_SAP_PARAS", "citation": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text)", "date": "1994-05-13", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt", "note": "OCR text checked on 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_EXTDEBT_1970", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, DT.DOD.DECT.CD (external debt stocks, US$) / NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (GDP, US$), Nigeria, 1970-2024 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/DT.DOD.DECT.CD?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "concord84", "citation": "Buhari 1984 budget speech as reported in National Concord, 10-12 May 1984, reprinted in Africa Development (CODESRIA)", "url": "https://www.journals.codesria.org/index.php/ad/article/download/3159/2949/4239" }, { "id": "jprs84073", "citation": "JPRS Sub-Saharan Africa Report JPRS-SSA-84-073 (21 Jun 1984), pp.60-61: reprint of Lagos Daily Times, 8 May 1984, pp.1,5 (archive.org, n67-n68)", "url": "https://archive.org/details/jprs-report_jprs-ssa-84-073/page/n67" }, { "id": "nn850829", "citation": "New Nigerian, 29 Aug 1985, p.3 (countertrade criticised; OCR)", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19850829-01.1.3" }, { "id": "upi840313", "citation": "UPI, 13 Mar 1984, 'Brazil-Nigeria in oil barter deal'", "url": "https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/03/13/Brazil-Nigeria-in-oil-barter-deal/7461448002000/" }, { "id": "upi840424", "citation": "UPI, 24 Apr 1984, 'Nigerians bank money before exchange of currency'", "url": "https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/04/24/Nigerians-bank-money-before-exchange-of-currency/2379451630800/" } ] }, { "id": "babangida", "name": "Ibrahim Babangida", "years": "1985-1993", "in_office": "1985-08-27 to 1993-08-26", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1986-1993 (8)", "labels": [ "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 17, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 15, "growth": 49, "fx": 0, "debt": 21, "reserves": 0 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 30.51, "avg_growth_pct": 3.41, "fx_official_start_end": "1.755 -> 22.07", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 43.58, "debt_series": "WDI external debt/GDP (not comparable with the IMF general-government series)", "debt_gdp_start_end": "40.5 -> 54.1", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 1.94, "reserves_months_end": 1.55 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Debt: external debt/GDP used (not comparable)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil headwind", "change_pct": -41, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 18.25, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 30.96, "years": "1986-1993 vs 1981-1985", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 0.5, "score_0_100": 12.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "0.5/4 (Q1 0; Q2 0; Q3 0.5; Q4 0). Ways & Means 'continued unabated', the premium was above 20% in 6 of 8 years, extrabudgetary spending reached 65% of the total, and the World Bank and IMF record stop-go reversals.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. The 1991 CBN Decree cut Ways & Means access from 25% to 12.5% of revenue, but 'government borrowing continued unabated'. The 1988 expansion was 'initially financed by central bank credit' (World Bank 1994, paras 4.27, 4.60, 6.23).", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. Parallel premium above 20% in 6 of 8 scored years: 106.4% (1986), 38.1% (1987), 33.3% (1988), 42.8% (1989), 19.5% (1990), 31.6% (1991), 15.8% (1992), 64.3% (1993) (CBN Bullion). This was far below the 300%+ of 1984-85, but still large and persistent.", "evidence": [ "CBN_BULLION_2006", "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. Core SAP measures lasted for years (SFEM from Sep 1986, import licensing abolished). But the World Bank describes 'stop-and-go' fiscal policy and re-extended import bans, and the IMF says the government 'began to retreat from the basic reforms' from late 1990.", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS", "IMF_SAP_CH4" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. Extrabudgetary spending rose from 22% of federal spending (1986) to 65% (1992) (World Bank Table 3.7).", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": null } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 4, "score_0_100": 100, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "4 or more durable reforms (capped at 4).", "counted": [ { "date": "1986", "reform": "Commodity Board Decree of 1977 and Price Control Decree of 1971 repealed; marketing boards abolished.", "evidence": [ "IMF_SAP_CH4" ] }, { "date": "15 Jun 1988", "reform": "NDIC established (Decree No. 22): deposit insurance, operating from 1989.", "evidence": [ "NDIC_HIST" ] }, { "date": "Jul 1988", "reform": "Privatisation and Commercialisation Decree No. 25 of 1988.", "evidence": [ "nn880718" ] }, { "date": "1991", "reform": "CBN Decree No. 24 and BOFI Decree No. 25 of 1991. BOFI stayed in force until BOFIA 2020 repealed it.", "evidence": [ "WB_SAP_PARAS", "SH_BOFIA_2020" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "Sep 1986", "item": "Market-determined exchange rate (SFEM, 1986). Not counted: reversed by the 1994 budget peg, so it fails the durability test.", "evidence": [ "NN_SFEM_1986", "NN_PEG_1994" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 37, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Mkandawire and Soludo (1999) wrote of 'an increasing convergence of views that SAPs have not worked' and called for 'a much more active role for the state'. Olukoshi's 1993 volume documents SAP's political costs, and anti-SAP riots in 1989 left at least 22 dead (US State Dept). On this view the reforms GPLab credits came at a social cost the scorecard does not count.", "sources": [ "MKANDAWIRE_SOLUDO_1999", "OLUKOSHI_1993", "USDOS_1989" ] }, "note": "Debt uses WDI external debt/GDP at both ends (1986 and 1993) because the IMF general-government series starts in 1990.", "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "IMF_SAP_CH4", "citation": "IMF eLibrary, 'Nigeria: Experience with Structural Adjustment', ch. IV 'Structural Reform and Macroeconomic Policy, 1986-90' (ISBN 9781557756305)", "date": "1997", "url": "https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781557756305/ch004.xml", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "MKANDAWIRE_SOLUDO_1999", "citation": "Thandika Mkandawire & Charles C. Soludo, Our Continent, Our Future: African Perspectives on Structural Adjustment (CODESRIA/IDRC/Africa World Press, 1999), open-access edition, Introduction", "date": "1999", "url": "https://idrc-crdi.ca/sites/default/files/openebooks/855-4/index.html" }, { "id": "NDIC_HIST", "citation": "NDIC, 'NDIC History' (Decree No. 22 of 15 Jun 1988)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://ndic.gov.ng/about/ndic-history/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "NN_PEG_1994", "citation": "New Nigerian, 20 Jan 1994, p.1 ('a pegged exchange rate put at N 22 to the dollar'; OCR)", "date": "1994-01-20", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19940120-01.1.1" }, { "id": "NN_SFEM_1986", "citation": "New Nigerian, 27 Sep 1986, p.1 (first SFEM rate N4.6174/$; OCR)", "date": "1986-09-27", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19860927-01.1.1" }, { "id": "OLUKOSHI_1993", "citation": "Adebayo O. Olukoshi (ed.), The Politics of Structural Adjustment in Nigeria (James Currey/Heinemann, 1993) - Google Books record", "date": "1993", "url": "https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Politics_of_Structural_Adjustment_in.html?id=aZ01AQAAIAAJ" }, { "id": "SH_BOFIA_2020", "citation": "State House, 'President Buhari Assents to Banks and Other Financial Institution Act 2020' (12 Nov 2020; repeals BOFIA 1991)", "date": "2020-11-13", "url": "https://statehouse.gov.ng/president-buhari-assents-to-banks-and-other-financial-institution-act-2020/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "USDOS_1989", "citation": "US Department of State, Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1989: Nigeria (via ecoi.net) - at least 22 dead in anti-SAP riots", "date": "1990", "url": "https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1318282.html" }, { "id": "WB_SAP_PARAS", "citation": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text)", "date": "1994-05-13", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt", "note": "OCR text checked on 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_EXTDEBT_1970", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, DT.DOD.DECT.CD (external debt stocks, US$) / NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (GDP, US$), Nigeria, 1970-2024 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/DT.DOD.DECT.CD?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "nn880718", "citation": "New Nigerian, 18 Jul 1988, p.5 (text of Privatisation and Commercialisation Decree No. 25 of 1988; OCR)", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19880718-01.1.5" } ] }, { "id": "shonekan", "name": "Ernest Shonekan (Interim National Government)", "years": "1993", "in_office": "1993-08-26 to 1993-11-17", "type": "civilian (appointed, unelected)", "scored_years": "none", "labels": [ "Too short to score", "Type: civilian (appointed, unelected)" ], "status": "Too short to score", "why": "Fewer than two scored calendar years under the 183-day rule (§3): 0 scored year(s) (none). No outcome, credibility, reforms or composite score is given.", "facts": { "finance_ministers": [ "Aminu Saleh (1993)" ], "cbn_governors": [ "Abdulkadir Ahmed (to 30 Sep 1993)", "Paul Ogwuma (from 1 Oct 1993)" ], "signature_move": "The biggest single petrol price jump on record: 70k to N5 a litre (8 Nov 1993).", "oil_price_context": "About $17 a barrel in 1993 (nominal).", "key_actions": [ { "date": "7 Jun 1993", "action": "The subsidy debate in Newswatch; Sam Aluko argues that yam sellers \"too are subsidising the local consumers\" (earlier, under Babangida).", "sources": [ "newswatch93" ] }, { "date": "8 Nov 1993", "action": "Petrol 70k to N5.", "sources": [ "vanguard_fuel" ] }, { "date": "11 Nov 1993", "action": "Senate protest.", "sources": [ "nn931111" ] }, { "date": "17 Nov 1993", "action": "Removed by Abacha.", "sources": [ "vanguard_fuel" ] } ] }, "context_data_not_scored": { "1993": { "cpi_inflation_pct": 57.17, "gdp_growth_pct": -2.04, "official_fx": 22.0654, "oil_usd_bbl": 16.97 } }, "context_note": "Calendar-year data shown for context only; these years are shared with (and scored for) neighbouring governments where they held 183+ days.", "outcome": null, "credibility": null, "reforms": null, "composite": null, "sources": [ { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "newswatch93", "citation": "Newswatch, 7 Jun 1993 (Aluko on subsidy; archive.org n3)", "url": "https://archive.org/details/newswatch-7-6-1993/page/n3/" }, { "id": "nn931111", "citation": "New Nigerian, 11 Nov 1993, p.1 (Senate protests fuel increase; OCR)", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19931111-01.1.1" }, { "id": "vanguard_fuel", "citation": "Vanguard, 'Timeline of fuel price increments', 26 Dec 2017", "url": "https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/timeline-fuel-price-increments/" } ] }, { "id": "abacha", "name": "Sani Abacha", "years": "1993-1998", "in_office": "1993-11-17 to 1998-06-08", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1994-1997 (4)", "labels": [ "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 64, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 0, "growth": 19, "fx": 100, "debt": 100, "reserves": 100 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 41.92, "avg_growth_pct": 1.31, "fx_official_start_end": "22 -> 21.89", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": -0.17, "debt_series": "IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP", "debt_gdp_start_end": "39.7 -> 17.1", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": -7.53, "reserves_months_end": 17.38 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil neutral", "change_pct": -8, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 18.15, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 19.65, "years": "1994-1997 vs 1989-1993", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 1.5, "score_0_100": 37.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "1.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0; Q3 0.5; Q4 0.5). Multiple official rates (N22 and AFEM) and a 1994 CBN-financed deficit, partly offset by 1996-97 surpluses. The 1994 regime was partly unwound within a year.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The 1994 deficit (about 7% of GDP) was 'financed primarily by borrowing from the Central Bank'. The CBN held 75% of domestic government debt at end-1994. By 1996-97 the budget was in surplus (US State Dept reports).", "evidence": [ "USDOS_1995", "USDOS_1999" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. The 1994 peg at N22/$ against a parallel rate of about N48 ('from 48 to 22'; premium 173.1% in 1994, CBN Bullion). From 1995 there were two official rates: N22 for government and the AFEM rate (N81.20 average in 1995, CBN Bullion).", "evidence": [ "NN_PEG_1994", "NN_PEG_REACT_1994", "CBN_BULLION_2006", "NN_AFEM_1995" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The Jan 1994 regime (peg, capped interest rates) was partly unwound within about 12 months by the 1995 budget's 'guided deregulation' and the AFEM. The N22 official rate survived until 1999.", "evidence": [ "NN_PEG_1994", "NN_AFEM_1995", "WB_SAP_PARAS" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The 1995 deficit shrank 'by postponing government spending (including for debt service)', i.e. the budget was not executed as passed, but it was in surplus in 1996-97.", "evidence": [ "USDOS_1999" ], "flag": "disputed" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 2, "score_0_100": 50, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2 durable reforms.", "counted": [ { "date": "1995", "reform": "Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission Decree 1995 (repealed the Indigenisation Decree).", "evidence": [ "NEPD_WIKI" ] }, { "date": "1995", "reform": "Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Decree No. 17 of 1995 (autonomous FX market). Still on the statute book.", "evidence": [ "FXMON_1995" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "1994", "item": "Failed Banks Decree and bank liquidations (26 banks closed, Jan 1998). No source was gathered on how long the law lasted; not counted.", "evidence": [ "ndic98" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 54, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "At the time, some welcomed the peg. A Kaduna business leader praised 'pegging the exchange rate from 48 to 22 Naira' (New Nigerian, Jan 1994). By 1996-97 the budget was in surplus and inflation had fallen sharply (WDI). Defenders argue that 'guided deregulation' stabilised a collapsing naira, and structuralists (Krugman and Taylor) warn that devaluation can be contractionary.", "sources": [ "NN_PEG_REACT_1994", "USDOS_1999", "WDI_CPI", "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978" ] }, "note": "Outcome FX score uses the official N22 rate, which was not the market rate (parallel premium 173% in 1994); see credibility Q2. Debt/GDP falls from 39.7% to 17.1% (IMF) while the official N22 valuation applied.", "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "FXMON_1995", "citation": "Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1995, text (FMITI Nigeria Info Trade portal, PDF)", "date": "1995", "url": "https://nigeriainfotrade.fmiti.gov.ng/media/Nigeria%20Foreign%20Exchange%20(Monitoring%20and%20Miscellaneous%20Provisions)%20Act%201995.pdf", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "IMF_DEBT", "citation": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA" }, { "id": "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978", "citation": "Paul Krugman & Lance Taylor, 'Contractionary effects of devaluation', Journal of International Economics 8(3), 1978, pp.445-456 (RePEc record)", "date": "1978", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v8y1978i3p445-456.html" }, { "id": "NEPD_WIKI", "citation": "Wikipedia, 'Nigerian Enterprises Promotion Decree' (repealed 1995 by the NIPC Act)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Enterprises_Promotion_Decree", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary source" }, { "id": "NN_AFEM_1995", "citation": "New Nigerian, 18 Jan 1995, p.2 (1995 budget: 'guided deregulation'; OCR)", "date": "1995-01-18", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19950118-01.1.2" }, { "id": "NN_PEG_1994", "citation": "New Nigerian, 20 Jan 1994, p.1 ('a pegged exchange rate put at N 22 to the dollar'; OCR)", "date": "1994-01-20", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19940120-01.1.1" }, { "id": "NN_PEG_REACT_1994", "citation": "New Nigerian, 17 Jan 1994, p.2 (Kaduna business leader: 'pegging the exchange rate from 48 to 22 Naira'; OCR)", "date": "1994-01-17", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19940117-01.1.2" }, { "id": "USDOS_1995", "citation": "US Department of State, 'Nigeria: 1995 Country Report on Economic Policy and Trade Practices'", "date": "1996", "url": "https://1997-2001.state.gov/issues/economic/trade_reports/africa95/NIGERIA.html", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "USDOS_1999", "citation": "US Department of State, 'Nigeria: 1999 Country Report on Economic Policy and Trade Practices'", "date": "2000", "url": "https://1997-2001.state.gov/issues/economic/trade_reports/1999/nigeria.html", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WB_SAP_PARAS", "citation": "World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text)", "date": "1994-05-13", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/959091468775569769/txt/multi0page.txt", "note": "OCR text checked on 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?date=1980:2025&format=json&per_page=100" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "ndic98", "citation": "NDIC case study, Nigeria Merchant Bank (Vol. 4), on the 1998 liquidation of 26 banks", "url": "https://ndic.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VOLUME-4-NIGERIA-MERCHANT-BANK.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "abubakar", "name": "Abdulsalami Abubakar", "years": "1998-1999", "in_office": "1998-06-09 to 1999-05-29", "type": "military", "scored_years": "1998-1998 (1)", "labels": [ "Too short to score", "Type: military. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5" ], "status": "Too short to score", "why": "Fewer than two scored calendar years under the 183-day rule (§3): 1 scored year(s) (1998). No outcome, credibility, reforms or composite score is given.", "facts": { "finance_ministers": [ "Ismaila Usman (Aug 1998-May 1999)" ], "cbn_governors": [ "Paul Ogwuma" ], "signature_move": "The transition: handing power to an elected government within a year, with a fuel price adjustment and an end to the official N22 rate.", "oil_price_context": "$12.7 a barrel in 1998, the lowest since 1973 in nominal terms, recovering to $18.0 in 1999.", "key_actions": [ { "date": "20 Dec 1998", "action": "Petrol N11 to N25.", "sources": [ "vanguard_fuel" ] }, { "date": "6 Jan 1999", "action": "Petrol cut to N20.", "sources": [ "vanguard_fuel" ] }, { "date": "1999", "action": "The official/parallel exchange-rate split ends (official average N92.3/$ in 1999).", "sources": [ "wbfx", "cbnfx" ] } ] }, "context_data_not_scored": { "1998": { "cpi_inflation_pct": 10.0, "gdp_growth_pct": 2.58, "official_fx": 21.886, "oil_usd_bbl": 12.72 }, "1999": { "cpi_inflation_pct": 6.62, "gdp_growth_pct": 0.58, "official_fx": 92.3381, "oil_usd_bbl": 17.97 } }, "context_note": "Calendar-year data shown for context only; these years are shared with (and scored for) neighbouring governments where they held 183+ days.", "outcome": null, "credibility": null, "reforms": null, "composite": null, "sources": [ { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "cbnfx", "citation": "CBN, 'History of Foreign Exchange Management'", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/intops/FXManagement.html" }, { "id": "vanguard_fuel", "citation": "Vanguard, 'Timeline of fuel price increments', 26 Dec 2017", "url": "https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/timeline-fuel-price-increments/" }, { "id": "wbfx", "citation": "World Bank WDI, official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?date=1978:1999" } ] }, { "id": "obasanjo2", "name": "Olusegun Obasanjo (civilian)", "years": "1999-2007", "in_office": "1999-05-29 to 2007-05-29", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "1999-2006 (8)", "labels": [ "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 91, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 75, "growth": 100, "fx": 81, "debt": 100, "reserves": 100 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 12.55, "avg_growth_pct": 6.99, "fx_official_start_end": "92.34 -> 128.7", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 4.85, "debt_series": "IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP", "debt_gdp_start_end": "46.1 -> 6.7", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": -5.63, "reserves_months_end": 12.1 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Evidence gap on credibility Q1/Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil tailwind", "change_pct": 107, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 35.34, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 17.06, "years": "1999-2006 vs 1994-1998", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 3.0, "score_0_100": 75.0, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "3/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 1; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). A single official market with the premium under 20%, and its reforms lasted. Ways & Means and budget execution are unevidenced (0.5 each).", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no source found on Ways & Means balances against the legal limit in 1999-2006.", "evidence": [], "flag": "gap" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 1, "justification": "Yes. A single official market (IFEM from Oct 1999, then DAS/WDAS). Parallel premium 5.6% (1999), 9.7% (2000), 18.3% (2001) and 19.1% (2002), all below 20% (CBN Bullion).", "evidence": [ "CBN_FXHIST", "CBN_BULLION_2006" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Signature reforms lasted: bank consolidation (2004-05), the Paris Club exit (2005), the DMO (2003) and pensions (2004).", "evidence": [ "soludo04", "PARIS_2005", "DMO_ACT_2003", "PENCOM_2004" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 1999-2006.", "evidence": [], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 4, "score_0_100": 100, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "4 or more durable reforms (capped at 4).", "counted": [ { "date": "2003", "reform": "Debt Management Office (Establishment, etc.) Act 2003.", "evidence": [ "DMO_ACT_2003" ] }, { "date": "2004", "reform": "Pension Reform Act 2004: contributory pensions and PenCom.", "evidence": [ "PENCOM_2004" ] }, { "date": "6 Jul 2004", "reform": "N25bn minimum bank capital (89 banks consolidated by end-2005).", "evidence": [ "soludo04" ] }, { "date": "20 Oct 2005", "reform": "Paris Club deal: about US$18bn cancelled.", "evidence": [ "PARIS_2005" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 89, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Two caveats. First, the macro pillar was helped by a large oil tailwind (+107% on the prior five years), which GPLab shows but does not adjust for. Second, bigger banks were not automatically safer: in his 2010 lecture Sanusi described how post-consolidation banks lent recklessly under weak governance, leading to the 2009 rescue. Mkandawire and Soludo argue that Africa's debt problem needed relief, which Nigeria got in 2005, not just domestic discipline.", "sources": [ "EI_OIL", "SANUSI_2010", "MKANDAWIRE_SOLUDO_1999" ] }, "note": "The FX start point is the 1999 official average (N92.3/$). The jump from N21.9 (1998) straddles the Abubakar-Obasanjo handover and is scored against neither government (annual-data limitation).", "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_BULLION_2006", "citation": "CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002", "date": "2006", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/BULLION/GOV/2007/BULL%20JUL-SEPT06.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked" }, { "id": "CBN_FXHIST", "citation": "CBN, 'History of Foreign Exchange Management'", "date": "undated (accessed 2026-10-01)", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/intops/FXManagement.html" }, { "id": "DMO_ACT_2003", "citation": "Debt Management Office (Establishment, etc.) Act 2003, text (DMO, PDF)", "date": "2003", "url": "https://dmo.gov.ng/1289-dmo-act-1/file", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "IMF_DEBT", "citation": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA" }, { "id": "MKANDAWIRE_SOLUDO_1999", "citation": "Thandika Mkandawire & Charles C. Soludo, Our Continent, Our Future: African Perspectives on Structural Adjustment (CODESRIA/IDRC/Africa World Press, 1999), open-access edition, Introduction", "date": "1999", "url": "https://idrc-crdi.ca/sites/default/files/openebooks/855-4/index.html" }, { "id": "PARIS_2005", "citation": "Paris Club press release, 20 Oct 2005 (Nigeria: cancellation ~US$18bn, ~60%; Nigeria pays US$12.4bn)", "date": "2005-10-20", "url": "https://clubdeparis.org/files/live/sites/clubdeparis/files/contributed/01%20Fiches%20de%20traitement-PJ/3-ACCORDS%20CONCLUS-Myanmar%20%c3%a0%20Sao%20Tom%c3%a9/Nigeria-20%20octobre%202005/20051020-Nigeria-Comprehensive%20treatment%20of%20debt.pdf" }, { "id": "PENCOM_2004", "citation": "PenCom, 'Pension Reform Act' page (Pension Reform Act 2004)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://www.pencom.gov.ng/pension-reform-act/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "SANUSI_2010", "citation": "Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, 'Global Financial Meltdown and the Reforms in the Nigerian Banking Sector', public lecture, ATBU Bauchi, 10 Dec 2010 (copy on DocsLib; via search summary)", "date": "2010-12-10", "url": "https://docslib.org/doc/266143/global-financial-meltdown-and-the-reforms-in-the-nigerian-banking-sector" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "soludo04", "citation": "CBN, Governor Soludo's address, 6 Jul 2004 (N25bn minimum capital)", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/SPEECHES/2004/GOVADD-6JUL.PDF" } ] }, { "id": "yaradua", "name": "Umaru Musa Yar'Adua", "years": "2007-2010", "in_office": "2007-05-29 to 2010-05-05", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "2007-2009 (3)", "labels": [ "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 81, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 84, "growth": 100, "fx": 65, "debt": 57, "reserves": 100 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 9.84, "avg_growth_pct": 7.13, "fx_official_start_end": "125.8 -> 148.9", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 8.78, "debt_series": "IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP", "debt_gdp_start_end": "5.8 -> 6.1", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 0.15, "reserves_months_end": 7.98 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Evidence gap on credibility Q1/Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil tailwind", "change_pct": 82, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 77.11, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 42.36, "years": "2007-2009 vs 2002-2006", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.5, "score_0_100": 62.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Its reforms lasted. The FX gap was small, then widened in the 2009 crisis (disputed). Ways & Means and budget execution are unevidenced.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no source found on Ways & Means balances against the CBN Act 2007 limit (5% of the previous year's revenue) in 2007-09.", "evidence": [ "DT_WM_50BN" ], "flag": "gap" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The premium was small in late 2008 (WDAS N120.65 vs BDC N125.25, about 3.8%; CBN) but widened to 16.3% in Mar 2009 (N146.02 vs N171; Proshare) during the crisis. Large, but not clearly persistent.", "evidence": [ "CBN_Q4_2008", "PROSHARE_GAP_2009" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Its own reforms lasted: the Fiscal Responsibility Act and Public Procurement Act (2007) and the Aug 2009 bank rescue. (It did reverse a predecessor's petrol price rise, N75 to N65, in Jun 2007.)", "evidence": [ "FRA_2007", "PPA_2007", "DAILYTRUST_2009", "VANGUARD_FUEL_TL" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 2007-09.", "evidence": [], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 2, "score_0_100": 50, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2 durable reforms.", "counted": [ { "date": "4 Jun 2007", "reform": "Public Procurement Act 2007 (Bureau of Public Procurement).", "evidence": [ "PPA_2007" ] }, { "date": "30 Jul 2007", "reform": "Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 (borrowing limits, MTEF, Fiscal Responsibility Commission).", "evidence": [ "FRA_2007" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "14 Aug 2009", "item": "CBN removes five bank CEOs and injects about N400bn. A crisis action, not an institution in itself (AMCON came in 2010 under Jonathan).", "evidence": [ "DAILYTRUST_2009" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 69, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Critics of the 2009 rescue argue that it socialised bank losses built up under weak governance (Sanusi's 2010 lecture). On the other side, the government faced the 2008-09 global crisis and an oil-price collapse that no rule-based score adjusts for (Global Financial Crisis case study). Its short tenure, and the President's illness in 2009-10, also limited what it could do.", "sources": [ "SANUSI_2010", "DAILYTRUST_2009", "EI_OIL" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "CBN_Q4_2008", "citation": "CBN, Economic Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2008 (WDAS N120.65/$, BDC N125.25/$)", "date": "2009", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/REPORTS/RSD/2009/ECONOMIC%20REPORT%20FOR%20THE%20FOURTH%20QUARTER%20OF%202008.PDF", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "DAILYTRUST_2009", "citation": "Daily Trust, 15 Aug 2009, 'CBN boss sacks Ibru, Akingbola, 3 others'", "date": "2009-08-15", "url": "https://dailytrust.com/cbn-boss-sacks-ibru-akingbola-3-others/" }, { "id": "DT_WM_50BN", "citation": "Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024, 'How $50bn equivalent was printed and fritted in ways and means' (CBN Act s.38(2); W&M N856bn to N23.8trn)", "date": "2024-02-26", "url": "https://dailytrust.com/how-50bn-equivalent-was-printed-and-fritted-in-ways-and-means/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "FRA_2007", "citation": "Nigeria Open Data, 'Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007' (signed 2007-07-30, assented by Yar'Adua, in force)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://www.nigeriaopendata.com/laws/fiscal-responsibility-act-2007", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary compiler" }, { "id": "IMF_DEBT", "citation": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA" }, { "id": "PPA_2007", "citation": "Nigeria Open Data, 'Public Procurement Act 2007' (signed 2007-06-04, assented by Yar'Adua, in force)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://www.nigeriaopendata.com/laws/public-procurement-act-2007", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary compiler" }, { "id": "PROSHARE_GAP_2009", "citation": "Proshare, 5 Mar 2009, 'Naira: Official, parallel market rates widen' (RDAS N146.02 vs parallel N171)", "date": "2009-03-05", "url": "https://proshare.co/articles/naira-official-parallel-market-rates-widen", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "SANUSI_2010", "citation": "Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, 'Global Financial Meltdown and the Reforms in the Nigerian Banking Sector', public lecture, ATBU Bauchi, 10 Dec 2010 (copy on DocsLib; via search summary)", "date": "2010-12-10", "url": "https://docslib.org/doc/266143/global-financial-meltdown-and-the-reforms-in-the-nigerian-banking-sector" }, { "id": "VANGUARD_FUEL_TL", "citation": "Vanguard, 'Timeline of fuel price increments', 26 Dec 2017", "date": "2017-12-26", "url": "https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/timeline-fuel-price-increments/" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" } ] }, { "id": "jonathan", "name": "Goodluck Jonathan", "years": "2010-2015", "in_office": "2010-05-06 to 2015-05-29", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "2010-2014 (5)", "labels": [ "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 62, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 81, "growth": 87, "fx": 95, "debt": 14, "reserves": 32 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 10.67, "avg_growth_pct": 6.1, "fx_official_start_end": "150.3 -> 158.6", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 1.35, "debt_series": "IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP", "debt_gdp_start_end": "6.7 -> 15.8", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 2.28, "reserves_months_end": 3.92 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil tailwind", "change_pct": 45, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 102.01, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 70.2, "years": "2010-2014 vs 2005-2009", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.0, "score_0_100": 50.0, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 1; Q3 0.5; Q4 0). The FX premium was small, but the 2012 subsidy removal was partly reversed and only about 51% of the 2012 capital budget was used. The Ways & Means limit test is unverified.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. Ways & Means stood at N648.26bn in Jun 2015, two weeks after Jonathan left (Tribune). No source compares the balance during his years with the 5% limit.", "evidence": [ "TRIBUNE_WM_2022", "DT_WM_50BN" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 1, "justification": "Yes. The BDC premium over WDAS was about 1-2% in 2012-13, rising to about 11% by Dec 2014 (N188.45 vs N169.68) (CBN monthly data via Investors King). One official window.", "evidence": [ "IK_BDC", "CBN_MPC82_2012" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The flagship Jan 2012 subsidy removal (N65 to N141) was partly reversed within about 16 days (to N97). Power privatisation (Nov 2013) lasted.", "evidence": [ "BBC_2012", "GNAD_2012", "NATION_POWER_2013" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. 2012: of N1,339.99bn projected capital spending, N739.3bn was cash-backed and N686.3bn used (about 51%) (Budget Office, 2012 Budget Implementation Report).", "evidence": [ "BUDGET_2012" ], "flag": null } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 3, "score_0_100": 75, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "3 durable reforms.", "counted": [ { "date": "19 Jul 2010", "reform": "AMCON Act 2010 (bad-bank resolution).", "evidence": [ "AMCON_2010" ] }, { "date": "26 May 2011", "reform": "Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority Act 2011.", "evidence": [ "NSIA_OD" ] }, { "date": "1 Nov 2013", "reform": "Power generation and distribution companies handed to private owners.", "evidence": [ "NATION_POWER_2013" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "Apr 2010", "item": "Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act 2010. It lasted (NCDMB reports local content rising from under 5% to 61%), but it is a local-content mandate; not counted under GPLab's lens, consistent with indigenisation.", "evidence": [ "ips10", "NATION_NCDMB_61" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 62, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Critics say the 2012 reversal reflected justified distrust, not weak resolve: 'Remove corruption, not subsidy'. The House inquiry found 2011 subsidy payments of about N2.587trn, and McCulloch et al. find that distrust strongly predicts opposition to reform. Counting the Local Content Act, as developmental economists would (Chang), would raise the reforms score to 4.", "sources": [ "BBC_2012", "HOUSE_SUBSIDY_2012", "MCCULLOCH_2021", "CHANG_2002", "NATION_NCDMB_61" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "AMCON_2010", "citation": "Investadvocate, 20 Jul 2010, 'President Signs AMCON Bill' (CBN press release: signed 19 Jul 2010)", "date": "2010-07-20", "url": "https://investadvocateng.com/2010/07/20/president-signs-amcon-bill-190710-central-bank-of-nigeria-press-release-president-goodluck-jonathan-today-monday-july-19-2010-at-exactly-328-pm-signed-the-asset-management-corporation-of-nigeria-amcon/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "BBC_2012", "citation": "BBC News, 2 Jan 2012 (fuel subsidy removal protests; N65 to N141+)", "date": "2012-01-02", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16382286" }, { "id": "BUDGET_2012", "citation": "Federal Ministry of Finance / Budget Office, 2012 Budget Implementation Report, year-end (via CABRI): N739.3bn of N1,339.99bn capital cash-backed, N686.3bn utilised", "date": "2013", "url": "https://www.cabri-sbo.org/uploads/files/Documents/nigeria_2012_execution_external_year-end_report_ministry_of_finance_cen-sad_ecowas_english_1.pdf", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "CBN_MPC82_2012", "citation": "CBN, Monetary Policy Committee Communique No. 82, 19-20 Mar 2012 (reserves $32.64bn end-Dec 2011, $35.43bn 14 Mar 2012; WDAS N158.62 end-Jan 2012; interbank N161.60; BDC N163.00; inflation 10.3% Dec 2011, 11.9% Feb 2012)", "date": "2012-03-20", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/2012/PUBLICATIONS/COMMUNIQUE/MPD/MPC%20COMMUNIQUE%20NO%2082%20OF%20MARCH%2019%20AND%2020,%202012.PDF" }, { "id": "CHANG_2002", "citation": "Ha-Joon Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (Anthem Press, 2002)", "date": "2002", "url": "https://anthempress.com/books/kicking-away-the-ladder-pb" }, { "id": "DT_WM_50BN", "citation": "Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024, 'How $50bn equivalent was printed and fritted in ways and means' (CBN Act s.38(2); W&M N856bn to N23.8trn)", "date": "2024-02-26", "url": "https://dailytrust.com/how-50bn-equivalent-was-printed-and-fritted-in-ways-and-means/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "GNAD_2012", "citation": "Global Nonviolent Action Database (Swarthmore), 'Nigerians protest removal of fuel subsidy, 2012' (price cut back to N97, 16 Jan 2012)", "date": "2012", "url": "https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/nigerians-protest-removal-fuel-subsidy-2012" }, { "id": "HOUSE_SUBSIDY_2012", "citation": "House of Representatives Ad-Hoc Committee (chair Farouk Lawan), 'To verify and determine the actual subsidy requirements and monitor the implementation of the subsidy regime in Nigeria', Apr 2012 (PDF hosted by Channels TV); figures here via search summary and Vanguard - PDF not read in full", "date": "2012-04", "url": "https://www.channelstv.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Full_Report_of_the_Ad-Hoc_Committee_on_Subsidy_Regime.pdf" }, { "id": "IK_BDC", "citation": "Investors King, 6 Jul 2021, 'Central Bank of Nigeria BDC monthly average exchange rates of naira' (CBN data table; Dec 2014 BDC N188.45 vs official N169.68)", "date": "2021-07-06", "url": "https://investorsking.com/2021/07/06/central-bank-of-nigeria-bdc-monthly-average-exchange-rates-of-naira-from-2014-to-may-2021/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary reproduction of CBN data" }, { "id": "IMF_DEBT", "citation": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA" }, { "id": "MCCULLOCH_2021", "citation": "Neil McCulloch, Tom Moerenhout & Joonseok Yang, 'Fuel subsidy reform and the social contract in Nigeria: A micro-economic analysis', Energy Policy (Sep 2021), open access via PMC", "date": "2021-09", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8359919/" }, { "id": "NATION_NCDMB_61", "citation": "The Nation, 'Nigeria local content peaks at 61%' (NCDMB: from under 5% in 2010; via search summary)", "date": "2025", "url": "https://thenationonlineng.net/nigeria-local-content-peaks-at-61/" }, { "id": "NATION_POWER_2013", "citation": "The Nation, 1 Nov 2013 (power-sector handover; N600bn-N1trn liabilities to NELMCO)", "date": "2013-11-01", "url": "https://thenationonlineng.net/new-owners-take-power-sector/" }, { "id": "NSIA_OD", "citation": "Nigeria Open Data, 'Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (Establishment, etc.) Act 2011' (signed 2011-05-26, assented by Jonathan)", "date": "undated", "url": "https://www.nigeriaopendata.com/laws/nsia-act-2011", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; secondary compiler. NSIA's own Act page returned 404 (https://nsia.com.ng/resources/nsia-act-2011/)" }, { "id": "TRIBUNE_WM_2022", "citation": "Nigerian Tribune, 15 Aug 2022, 'FG borrows N19.3trn from CBN in 7 years' (W&M N648.26bn Jun 2015; N856.33bn Dec 2015; N2.23trn 2016; N3.31trn 2017; N5.41trn 2018; N8.72trn 2019; N13.11trn 2020; N17.46trn 2021; N19.91trn Jun 2022; CBN data)", "date": "2022-08-15", "url": "https://tribuneonlineng.com/fg-borrows-n19-3trn-from-cbn-in-7-years/" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "ips10", "citation": "IPS, 23 Apr 2010 (Local Content Act signed)", "url": "https://www.ipsnews.net/2010/04/nigeria-new-law-to-promote-locals-in-oil-industry/" } ] }, { "id": "buhari2", "name": "Muhammadu Buhari (civilian)", "years": "2015-2023", "in_office": "2015-05-29 to 2023-05-29", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "2015-2022 (8)", "labels": [ "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 39, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 69, "growth": 9, "fx": 52, "debt": 17, "reserves": 47 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 14.22, "avg_growth_pct": 0.63, "fx_official_start_end": "192.4 -> 426", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 12.02, "debt_series": "IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP", "debt_gdp_start_end": "14.9 -> 29.8", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": 2.13, "reserves_months_end": 4.82 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [ "Evidence gap on credibility Q4 (scored 0.5)" ], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil headwind", "change_pct": -39, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 62.49, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 102.01, "years": "2015-2022 vs 2010-2014", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 1.0, "score_0_100": 25.0, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "1/4 (Q1 0; Q2 0; Q3 0.5; Q4 0.5). Ways & Means went far beyond the 5% cap, with multiple FX windows and a large premium. Some reforms lasted, but the 2022 subsidy removal was suspended.", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. Ways & Means grew 'from N856 billion to N23.8 trillion' over seven years, overshooting the CBN Act s.38(2) cap of 5% of the previous year's revenue. In 2017 it stood at N1.1trn, 37.2% of the previous year's revenue (Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024). N22.7trn was securitised in May 2023.", "evidence": [ "DT_WM_50BN", "TRIBUNE_WM_2022", "NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. There were multiple windows (official, I&E from Apr 2017, BDC) and a large premium: N520 parallel vs about N305.50 official (Feb 2017).", "evidence": [ "NAIRAMETRICS_IE_2017", "TRIBUNE_520_2017", "AIICO_MAY2023" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The TSA (2015), Finance Acts (from 2019) and PIA (2021) lasted. But the planned subsidy removal was suspended indefinitely in Jan 2022, and the Jun 2016 'float' became a managed multi-window regime.", "evidence": [ "DT_TSA_2015", "SH_PIA_2021", "THISDAY_SUSP_2022", "NAIRAMETRICS_FLOAT_2016" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Evidence gap: no budget-execution report was gathered. In 2020 the oil benchmark in the budget was revised from $57 to $28.", "evidence": [ "THISDAY_OIL_2020" ], "flag": "gap" } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 4, "score_0_100": 100, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "4 durable reforms (capped at 4).", "counted": [ { "date": "7 Aug 2015", "reform": "Treasury Single Account made mandatory for federal MDAs (deadline 15 Sep 2015).", "evidence": [ "DT_TSA_2015" ] }, { "date": "7 Aug 2020", "reform": "Companies and Allied Matters Act 2020.", "evidence": [ "SH_CAMA_2020" ] }, { "date": "12 Nov 2020", "reform": "Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act 2020.", "evidence": [ "SH_BOFIA_2020" ] }, { "date": "16 Aug 2021", "reform": "Petroleum Industry Act 2021.", "evidence": [ "SH_PIA_2021" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "2015-2019", "item": "FX exclusion list (2015) and land-border closure (Aug 2019 to Dec 2020): controls, not counted. The list was lifted in Jun 2023.", "evidence": [ "CBN_CIRC_2015", "FMINO_BORDER_2019", "THECABLE_2023" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 51, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Emefiele and Buhari argued that devaluation in an import-dependent economy mostly raises prices and hurts the poor (CBN, 2015), with theoretical support from Krugman and Taylor. The government said the border closure raised customs revenue and rice output (government claims, not audited). The two oil crashes and the pandemic were a large headwind (-39%).", "sources": [ "VANGUARD_CBN_NODEVAL_2015", "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978", "FMINO_BORDER_2019", "EI_OIL" ] }, "note": "The official-rate FX score overstates stability; the multi-window regime and premium are scored under credibility Q2.", "sources": [ { "id": "AIICO_MAY2023", "citation": "AIICO Capital, 7 Jun 2023, 'Monthly Financial Market Update - May 2023' (unofficial cash rate mostly N735-740/$; NAFEX close N465.32; I&E N464.67)", "date": "2023-06-07", "url": "https://wp.aiicocapital.com/2023/06/07/monthly-financial-market-update-may-2023/" }, { "id": "CBN_CIRC_2015", "citation": "CBN circular TED/FEM/FPC/GEN/01/010, 23 Jun 2015 (items 'not valid for foreign exchange'; Wayback copy)", "date": "2015-06-23", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20160221232757/http://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2015/TED/TED.FEM.FPC.GEN.01.010.pdf" }, { "id": "DT_TSA_2015", "citation": "Daily Trust, 7 Sep 2015, 'Treasury Single Acct: Buhari gives MDAs Sept 15 deadline'", "date": "2015-09-07", "url": "https://dailytrust.com/treasury-single-acct-buhari-gives-mdas-sept-15-deadline/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "DT_WM_50BN", "citation": "Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024, 'How $50bn equivalent was printed and fritted in ways and means' (CBN Act s.38(2); W&M N856bn to N23.8trn)", "date": "2024-02-26", "url": "https://dailytrust.com/how-50bn-equivalent-was-printed-and-fritted-in-ways-and-means/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "FMINO_BORDER_2019", "citation": "Federal Ministry of Information, 2019, 'Border closure: higher import revenue, lower fuel consumption, increased rice production among gains - FG' (government claim)", "date": "2019", "url": "https://fmino.gov.ng/border-closure-higher-import-revenue-lower-fuel-consumption-increased-rice-production-among-gains-fg/" }, { "id": "IMF_DEBT", "citation": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA" }, { "id": "KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978", "citation": "Paul Krugman & Lance Taylor, 'Contractionary effects of devaluation', Journal of International Economics 8(3), 1978, pp.445-456 (RePEc record)", "date": "1978", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v8y1978i3p445-456.html" }, { "id": "NAIRAMETRICS_FLOAT_2016", "citation": "Nairametrics, 20 Jun 2016, 'Results are in: Nigeria's new official exchange rate after currency float' (official ~N281.85/$; parallel ~N345/$)", "date": "2016-06-20", "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2016/06/20/results-are-in-nigerias-new-official-exchange-rate-after-currency-float/" }, { "id": "NAIRAMETRICS_IE_2017", "citation": "Nairametrics, 21 Apr 2017, 'CBN creates yet another FX window for investors & exporters' (I&E window, circular of 21 Apr 2017)", "date": "2017-04-21", "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2017/04/21/cbn-creates-yet-another-fx-window-for-investors-exporters-encourages-market-transparency/" }, { "id": "NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023", "citation": "Nairametrics, 9 May 2023 (Senate approves securitisation of N22.7trn Ways & Means)", "date": "2023-05-09", "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2023/05/09/securitisation-of-the-22-7trn-naira-ways-and-means/" }, { "id": "SH_BOFIA_2020", "citation": "State House, 'President Buhari Assents to Banks and Other Financial Institution Act 2020' (12 Nov 2020; repeals BOFIA 1991)", "date": "2020-11-13", "url": "https://statehouse.gov.ng/president-buhari-assents-to-banks-and-other-financial-institution-act-2020/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "SH_CAMA_2020", "citation": "State House, 'After 30 Years, President Buhari Signs Amended Companies and Allied Matters Act' (7 Aug 2020)", "date": "2020-08-07", "url": "https://statehouse.gov.ng/after-30-years-president-buhari-signs-amended-companies-and-matters-allied/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "SH_PIA_2021", "citation": "State House, 'President Buhari Signs Petroleum Industry Bill into Law' (16 Aug 2021)", "date": "2021-08-16", "url": "https://statehouse.gov.ng/president-buhari-signs-petroleum-industry-bill-into-law/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "THECABLE_2023", "citation": "TheCable, 14 Jun 2023 (CBN unifies all FX windows)", "date": "2023-06-14", "url": "https://www.thecable.ng/its-official-cbn-announces-unification-of-all-exchange-rate-windows/" }, { "id": "THISDAY_OIL_2020", "citation": "ThisDay, 2 Jun 2020 (2020 revised budget oil benchmark $25 to $28)", "date": "2020-06-02", "url": "https://www.thisdaylive.com/2020/06/02/2020-revised-budget-senate-increases-crude-oil-benchmark-from-25-to-28/" }, { "id": "THISDAY_SUSP_2022", "citation": "ThisDay, 24 Jan 2022, 'FG Suspends Planned Fuel Subsidy Removal Indefinitely'", "date": "2022-01-24", "url": "https://www.thisdaylive.com/2022/01/24/breaking-fg-postpones-fuel-subsidy-removal-till-further-notice/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; Reuters version returned HTTP 401" }, { "id": "TRIBUNE_520_2017", "citation": "Nigerian Tribune, Feb 2017, 'Naira crashes to N520/dollar as CBN plans increased supply' (official ~N305.50)", "date": "2017-02-20", "url": "https://tribuneonlineng.com/naira-crashes-n520dollar-cbn-plans-increased-supply/" }, { "id": "TRIBUNE_WM_2022", "citation": "Nigerian Tribune, 15 Aug 2022, 'FG borrows N19.3trn from CBN in 7 years' (W&M N648.26bn Jun 2015; N856.33bn Dec 2015; N2.23trn 2016; N3.31trn 2017; N5.41trn 2018; N8.72trn 2019; N13.11trn 2020; N17.46trn 2021; N19.91trn Jun 2022; CBN data)", "date": "2022-08-15", "url": "https://tribuneonlineng.com/fg-borrows-n19-3trn-from-cbn-in-7-years/" }, { "id": "VANGUARD_CBN_NODEVAL_2015", "citation": "Vanguard, Nov 2015, 'Why we ignored calls for naira devaluation, by CBN' (Emefiele: import dependence; devaluation would feed inflation - via search summary)", "date": "2015-11", "url": "https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/11/why-we-ignored-calls-for-naira-devaluation-by-cbn/" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" } ] }, { "id": "tinubu", "name": "Bola Ahmed Tinubu", "years": "2023-present", "in_office": "2023-05-29 to present", "type": "civilian", "scored_years": "2023-2025 (3)", "labels": [ "Interim score (completed calendar years 2023-2025 only)", "Type: civilian", "Outcome score: computed from WDI/IMF data", "Credibility and reforms: Draft, open for public review", "Composite: Draft, open for public review" ], "outcome": { "score_0_100": 47, "sub_scores_0_100": { "inflation": 27, "growth": 54, "fx": 0, "debt": 68, "reserves": 85 }, "inputs": { "avg_inflation_pct": 26.97, "avg_growth_pct": 3.8, "fx_official_start_end": "645.2 -> 1518", "fx_depr_pct_per_yr": 53.41, "debt_series": "IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP", "debt_gdp_start_end": "36.3 -> 35.5", "debt_change_pp_per_yr": -0.4, "reserves_months_end": 7.12 }, "indicators_used": 5, "weighting": "Mean of available indicators (10% each when all five present; re-scaled when missing)" }, "data_flags": [], "oil_badge": { "badge": "Oil neutral", "change_pct": 11, "avg_usd_bbl_scored_years": 77.5, "avg_usd_bbl_prev5": 69.92, "years": "2023-2025 vs 2018-2022", "source": "EI_OIL" }, "credibility": { "score_0_4": 2.5, "score_0_100": 62.5, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "2.5/4 (Q1 1; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0). New Ways & Means advances were halted and its reforms lasted, but the FX premium stayed large until 2025-26 and the 2024 and 2025 budgets ran concurrently (interim).", "questions": [ { "question": "q1", "text": "Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?", "points": 1, "justification": "Yes. The CBN Governor welcomed the 'discontinuing [of] Ways and Means advances' under s.38 of the CBN Act (Leadership, 10 Feb 2024). The CBN kept the Ways and Means limit at 5% for 2024-25 even though the National Assembly had allowed more (Punch, 17 Sep 2024). The N22.7trn legacy stock was securitised before this government.", "evidence": [ "LEADERSHIP_WM_2024", "PUNCH_WM_5PCT_2024", "NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q2", "text": "Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?", "points": 0.5, "justification": "Disputed. The windows were unified on 14 Jun 2023, but a large gap persisted into 2024 (parallel N1,830 in Feb 2024). It had narrowed to about 3% by end-Sep 2026 (parallel N1,370 vs NFEM N1,330.47).", "evidence": [ "THECABLE_2023", "NAIRAMETRICS_1830_2024", "VANGUARD_PARALLEL_SEP2026", "TRIBUNE_FX_SEP2026" ], "flag": "disputed" }, { "question": "q3", "text": "Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?", "points": 1, "justification": "Yes. Subsidy removal (May 2023) and FX unification (Jun 2023) both lasted more than 12 months. Petrol was about N1,385/litre in Lagos in Sep 2026, and NFEM still operates.", "evidence": [ "CHANNELS_INAUG_2023", "THECABLE_2023", "LEGIT_PETROL_SEP2026", "NAIRAMETRICS_FX_SEP2026" ], "flag": null }, { "question": "q4", "text": "Budgets broadly implemented as passed?", "points": 0, "justification": "No. The 2024 capital budget's implementation was extended to 30 Jun 2025 and then to 31 Dec 2025 (Daily Trust, 25 Jun 2025), so the 2024 and 2025 budgets ran concurrently. In Dec 2025 the 2024 and 2025 Acts were repealed and re-enacted.", "evidence": [ "DT_BUDGET_EXT", "ALLAFRICA_REPEAL" ], "flag": null } ] }, "reforms": { "score_0_4": 3, "score_0_100": 75, "label": "Draft, open for public review", "justification": "3 reforms judged clearly durable (interim; durability cannot yet be tested over 5 years).", "counted": [ { "date": "14 Jun 2023", "reform": "FX windows unified (NFEM). The FX Code (Jan 2025) and EFEMS (Dec 2024) followed.", "evidence": [ "THECABLE_2023", "CBN_REFORMS", "MONDAQ_EFEMS" ] }, { "date": "9 Jun 2023", "reform": "Electricity Act 2023 (states may regulate and generate).", "evidence": [ "SAHARA_ELECACT_2023" ] }, { "date": "26 Jun 2025", "reform": "Four tax-reform Acts signed (Nigeria Tax Act 2025 in force from 1 Jan 2026).", "evidence": [ "STATEHOUSE_TAX_2025", "EY_NTA_2025" ] } ], "listed_not_counted": [ { "date": "Mar 2026", "item": "Bank recapitalisation (33 of 37 banks compliant at close). Not yet counted: completed only in 2026.", "evidence": [ "THISDAY_RECAP_2026" ] } ] }, "composite": { "score_0_100": 58, "formula": "0.5 x outcome + 0.25 x credibility + 0.25 x reforms (weights approved, 2 Oct 2026)", "label": "Interim; Draft, open for public review" }, "opposing_view": { "text": "Critics point to the cost. The World Bank says the basic food basket cost rose fivefold between 2019 and 2024, and estimates 63% of Nigerians below the national poverty line in 2025 (projection). At least 24 people were killed in the Aug 2024 protests (Amnesty). CSJ objected to the 'abruptness' and 'lack of public consultation'. The 1994 re-peg shows that reforms can be reversed.", "sources": [ "WB_NDU_OCT2025", "WB_NDU_APR2026", "AMNESTY_2024", "VANGUARD_ECONOMISTS_2023", "NN_PEG_1994" ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "ALLAFRICA_REPEAL", "citation": "allAfrica, 24 Dec 2025, 'National Assembly Okays Repeal, Re-Enactment of 2024, 2025 Appropriation Acts'", "date": "2025-12-24", "url": "https://allafrica.com/stories/202512240240.html", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "AMNESTY_2024", "citation": "Amnesty International, 28 Nov 2024, 'Nigeria: Police used excessive force to violently quash #EndBadGovernance protests' (at least 24 killed, 1-10 Aug 2024)", "date": "2024-11-28", "url": "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/11/nigeria-police-used-excessive-force-to-violently-quash-endbadgovernance-protests/" }, { "id": "CBN_REFORMS", "citation": "CBN, 'CBN Reforms and Initiatives' page (FX Code launched 28 Jan 2025)", "date": "undated (accessed 2026-10-01)", "url": "https://www.cbn.gov.ng/AboutCBN/Reforms.html" }, { "id": "CHANNELS_INAUG_2023", "citation": "Channels TV, 29 May 2023, full text of Tinubu inaugural speech ('fuel subsidy is gone')", "date": "2023-05-29", "url": "https://www.channelstv.com/2023/05/29/full-text-of-president-tinubus-inaugural-speech/" }, { "id": "DT_BUDGET_EXT", "citation": "Daily Trust, 25 Jun 2025, 'Senate extends 2024 budget implementation to December'", "date": "2025-06-25", "url": "https://dailytrust.com/senate-extends-2024-budget-implementation-to-december/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "EI_OIL", "citation": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)", "date": "2026", "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices" }, { "id": "EY_NTA_2025", "citation": "EY Global Tax News, 'Nigeria Tax Act, 2025 has been signed - highlights' (effective 1 Jan 2026; small company threshold; 4% development levy)", "date": "2025-07", "url": "https://globaltaxnews.ey.com/news/2025-5016-nigeria-tax-act-2025-has-been-signed-highlights" }, { "id": "IMF_DEBT", "citation": "IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/GGXWDG_NGDP/NGA" }, { "id": "LEADERSHIP_WM_2024", "citation": "Leadership, 10 Feb 2024, 'Law Bars CBN From Advancing More Loans To FG - Cardoso' (“fiscal authorities’ efforts in discontinuing Ways and Means advances”; Section 38 of the CBN Act)", "date": "2024-02-10", "url": "https://leadership.ng/law-bars-cbn-from-advancing-more-loans-to-fg-cardoso/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; page opened" }, { "id": "LEGIT_PETROL_SEP2026", "citation": "Legit.ng, 25 Sep 2026, NNPC pump prices after Dangote cut ex-gantry to N1,325 (Lagos N1,385; Abuja N1,430; Yobe N1,456)", "date": "2026-09-25", "url": "https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1732631-nnpc-releases-petrol-prices-abuja-lagos-delta-zamfara-states/" }, { "id": "MONDAQ_EFEMS", "citation": "Mondaq, 'An overview of the CBN FX Code and circular on the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System' (EFEMS from 1 Dec 2024)", "date": "2024-12", "url": "https://www.mondaq.com/nigeria/financial-services/1558676/an-overview-of-the-cbn-fx-code-and-circular-on-the-electronic-foreign-exchange-matching-system" }, { "id": "NAIRAMETRICS_1830_2024", "citation": "Nairametrics, 21 Feb 2024, 'Naira hits record low of N1,830/$1 at the black market'", "date": "2024-02-21", "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2024/02/21/naira-hits-record-low-of-n1830-1-at-the-black-market/" }, { "id": "NAIRAMETRICS_FX_SEP2026", "citation": "Nairametrics, 1 Oct 2026, 'Interbank FX turnover jumps 123% as naira strengthens to N1,329.50/$' (NFEM close 30 Sep 2026)", "date": "2026-10-01", "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2026/10/01/interbank-fx-turnover-jumps-123-as-naira-strengthens-to-n1329-50/" }, { "id": "NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023", "citation": "Nairametrics, 9 May 2023 (Senate approves securitisation of N22.7trn Ways & Means)", "date": "2023-05-09", "url": "https://nairametrics.com/2023/05/09/securitisation-of-the-22-7trn-naira-ways-and-means/" }, { "id": "NN_PEG_1994", "citation": "New Nigerian, 20 Jan 1994, p.1 ('a pegged exchange rate put at N 22 to the dollar'; OCR)", "date": "1994-01-20", "url": "https://gpa.eastview.com/nnda/?a=d&d=nnda19940120-01.1.1" }, { "id": "PUNCH_WM_5PCT_2024", "citation": "Punch, 17 Sep 2024, 'CBN defies N'Assembly, maintains 5% ways and means advance limit' (CBN to keep Ways and Means advances at a 5% limit for 2024-2025)", "date": "2024-09-17", "url": "https://punchng.com/just-in-cbn-defies-nassembly-maintains-5-ways-and-means-advance-limit/", "note": "accessed 2026-10-02; page opened" }, { "id": "SAHARA_ELECACT_2023", "citation": "Sahara Reporters, 9 Jun 2023, 'President Tinubu signs Electricity Act 2023, empowers states, private companies to generate power'", "date": "2023-06-09", "url": "https://saharareporters.com/2023/06/09/president-tinubu-signs-electricity-act-2023-empowers-states-private-companies-generate" }, { "id": "STATEHOUSE_TAX_2025", "citation": "State House, Jun 2025, 'President Tinubu: New Tax Laws, the way forward for Nigeria's prosperity' (four Acts signed 26 Jun 2025)", "date": "2025-06-26", "url": "https://statehouse.gov.ng/president-tinubu-new-tax-laws-the-way-forward-for-nigerias-prosperity/" }, { "id": "THECABLE_2023", "citation": "TheCable, 14 Jun 2023 (CBN unifies all FX windows)", "date": "2023-06-14", "url": "https://www.thecable.ng/its-official-cbn-announces-unification-of-all-exchange-rate-windows/" }, { "id": "THISDAY_RECAP_2026", "citation": "ThisDay, 2 Apr 2026 (33 of 37 banks met new capital rules; N4.65trn raised)", "date": "2026-04-02", "url": "https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/04/02/cbn-33-of-37-banks-met-new-capital-requirements-raised-n4-65trn/" }, { "id": "TRIBUNE_FX_SEP2026", "citation": "Nigerian Tribune, 30 Sep 2026, 'Naira strengthens against dollar at official FX market' (NFEM N1,330.47 on 29 Sep; BDC N1,375/N1,385)", "date": "2026-09-30", "url": "https://tribuneonlineng.com/naira-strengthens-against-dollar-at-official-fx-market-6/" }, { "id": "VANGUARD_ECONOMISTS_2023", "citation": "Vanguard (Tunde Oso), 4 Jun 2023, 'The Tinubunomics' twins: Teriba, Yusuf, other top economists react' (Ayo Teriba, Muda Yusuf, CSJ/Eze Onyekpere, Biodun Adedipe, Seye Olusoga, David Adonri, Garba Kurfi)", "date": "2023-06-04", "url": "https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/06/the-tinubunomics-twins-teriba-yusuf-other-top-economists-react/" }, { "id": "VANGUARD_PARALLEL_SEP2026", "citation": "Vanguard, 30 Sep 2026, 'Naira rises, now N1,370/$ in parallel market' (gap N41)", "date": "2026-09-30", "url": "https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/09/naira-rises-now-n1370-in-parallel-market/" }, { "id": "WB_NDU_APR2026", "citation": "World Bank, Nigeria Development Update, Apr 2026, 'Nigeria's Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development' (Fig. 1.32, national poverty line: 56% 2023, 61% 2024, 63% 2025, 63% 2026, read from figure data labels; projections after 2023; text: poverty to 'reach 59 percent by 2028'; 2024+ revised for NBS re-referenced CPI)", "date": "2026-04", "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099040726024529229/pdf/P513192-aac8242c-b971-4654-bb1c-009497fba827.pdf" }, { "id": "WB_NDU_OCT2025", "citation": "World Bank, press release 8 Oct 2025, 'Positive economic momentum in Nigeria, now time to bring home the gains' (NDU Oct 2025: reserves > $42bn; basic food basket cost up fivefold 2019-2024; poor households spend up to 70% of income on food)", "date": "2025-10-08", "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/08/positive-economic-momentum-in-nigeria-now-time-to-bring-home-the-gains" }, { "id": "WDI_CPI_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_FX_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_GDP_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" }, { "id": "WDI_RESMO_1960", "citation": "World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13)", "date": "2026-07-13", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/NGA/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO?format=json&per_page=200", "note": "live pull saved 2026-10-02" } ] } ] }