About us
1993–1998 · Military
Back to controls: a fixed naira, cheap official dollars for the connected, and banks going bust.
Military: took power unconstitutionally
Military government. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5
About this card. Outcome FX score uses the official N22 rate, which was not the market rate (parallel premium 173% in 1994); see credibility Q2. Debt/GDP falls from 39.7% to 17.1% (IMF) while the official N22 valuation applied.
64/100 Draft
| Indicator | Measured | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 41.92% a year on average | 0 |
| Growth | 1.31% a year on average | 19 |
| Naira stability | Official rate 22 -> 21.89 (₦ per $); -0.17% a year | 100 |
| Public debt | IMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP: 39.7 -> 17.1% of GDP; -7.53 pp a year | 100 |
| Reserves | 17.38 months of imports at the end | 100 |
Evidence: method, Pillar A · sources
Challenge this score1.5/4 (37.5/100) Draft, open for public review
1.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0; Q3 0.5; Q4 0.5). Multiple official rates (N22 and AFEM) and a 1994 CBN-financed deficit, partly offset by 1996-97 surpluses. The 1994 regime was partly unwound within a year.
Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit? 0.5 Disputed
Disputed. The 1994 deficit (about 7% of GDP) was 'financed primarily by borrowing from the Central Bank'. The CBN held 75% of domestic government debt at end-1994. By 1996-97 the budget was in surplus (US State Dept reports). [USDOS_1995] [USDOS_1999]
Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium? 0
No. The 1994 peg at N22/$ against a parallel rate of about N48 ('from 48 to 22'; premium 173.1% in 1994, CBN Bullion). From 1995 there were two official rates: N22 for government and the AFEM rate (N81.20 average in 1995, CBN Bullion). [NN_PEG_1994] [NN_PEG_REACT_1994] [CBN_BULLION_2006] [NN_AFEM_1995]
Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal? 0.5 Disputed
Disputed. The Jan 1994 regime (peg, capped interest rates) was partly unwound within about 12 months by the 1995 budget's 'guided deregulation' and the AFEM. The N22 official rate survived until 1999. [NN_PEG_1994] [NN_AFEM_1995] [WB_SAP_PARAS]
Budgets broadly implemented as passed? 0.5 Disputed
Disputed. The 1995 deficit shrank 'by postponing government spending (including for debt service)', i.e. the budget was not executed as passed, but it was in surplus in 1996-97. [USDOS_1999]
Evidence: method, Pillar B · sources
Challenge this score2/4 (50/100) Draft, open for public review
2 durable reforms.
Evidence: method, Pillar C · sources
Challenge this score
