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Replay Nigeria's Economic History: 1986 to 2026

Historical facts are SOURCED. Game mechanics and approval are ILLUSTRATIVE – NOT A FORECAST.

Replay four real crises: SAP in 1986, Occupy Nigeria in 2012, the 2016 naira crisis and the 2023 reset. Make each call, see what was actually decided, then what really happened 6, 12 and 24 months later. Then take over in October 2026.

ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY. These rules simplify real economics into a teaching game. They are not a model of the Nigerian economy and must not be presented as predictions of any policy's effect.

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How the game works

Each turn = 1 year (4 turns). Apply: (1) option effects for the year, drawing uniformly within [min,max]; (2) interaction rules; (3) one oil event draw; (4) approval update; (5) protest check. Ranges are deliberately small and rounded. They are informed by the direction and rough scale of real episodes (listed per rule) but are NOT estimated from data and must not be presented as predictions.

Replays. Each replay opens with the sourced setting and a short briefing, then asks 3 or 4 real decisions. After each call you see what was actually decided, with sources. At the end you get the sourced outcomes at about 6, 12 and 24 months, a two-sided debate and the archive clippings. The game also runs your choices and the real ones through the same illustrative rules for two years, so you can compare. Levers a replay does not ask about have no effect. Finish any replay to unlock free play from October 2026: four years, all five levers.

What is real and what is not. Settings, real decisions and outcomes are sourced history. Approval values and every game effect are illustrative.

ILLUSTRATIVE – NOT A FORECAST

Every option and its ranges

Units: Inflation = percentage points added to annual inflation; Growth = pp added to growth; Naira fall = % fall in the naira's official value that year (+ = weaker); Street premium = pp change in the gap between parallel and official rate (% of official); Debt/GDP = pp change in general-government debt/GDP; Reserves = US$bn change; Approval = points on a 0-100 meter; Deficit = pp of GDP change in the budget deficit

Effects drawn at random inside each range, by year since the option was adopted. ILLUSTRATIVE – NOT A FORECAST
OptionEffect rangesInformed by (episode ids)
Fuel subsidy: Keep the price fixedEvery year: Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Debt/GDP 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 0 to 2
deficit +1.0 extra per +$20 oil above $70
NGA_2022_SUBSIDY_COST
Fuel subsidy: Raise the price in stepsEvery year: Inflation 0.5 to 1.5; Deficit -0.5 to 0; Approval -4 to -2
Saving shrinks each year if FX depreciates >20% (step eroded)
NGA_1978_94_HIKES, IDN_2015_FUEL
Fuel subsidy: Remove it overnightYear 1: Inflation 3 to 6; Growth -1 to 0; Deficit -1.5 to -0.5; Approval -25 to -15
Later years: Deficit -1.5 to -0.5; Approval 0 to 1
high in year 1
NGA_2012_OCCUPY, NGA_2023_REMOVAL
Fuel subsidy: Remove it and pay people directlyYear 1: Inflation 2 to 5; Growth -0.5 to 0; Deficit -1 to -0.3; Approval -12 to -6
Later years: Deficit -1 to -0.3; Approval 1 to 3
Transfers work only if 'targeting_database' is unlocked (else treat as fuel_big_bang with approval -3 better)
IDN_2015_FUEL, NGA_2023_REMOVAL
Exchange rate: Hard pegEvery year: Naira fall 0 to 0; Street premium 5 to 20; Reserves -6 to -2; Inflation -1 to 1; Approval 0 to 2
If reserves < 10 (US$bn) the peg breaks: forced one-off fx_depreciation [80,150], inflation +[8,15], approval -15
NGA_1981_PEG, NGA_1994_PEG
Exchange rate: Multiple windows / rationingEvery year: Naira fall 5 to 15; Street premium 5 to 15; Reserves -4 to 0; Growth -0.5 to 0; Approval -1 to 1NGA_2015_23_WINDOWS, ARG_2023_25_FX
Exchange rate: Managed float / bandYear 1: Naira fall 25 to 45; Street premium -20 to -5; Inflation 2 to 5; Approval -6 to -3
Later years: Naira fall 5 to 15; Street premium -10 to 0; Reserves -1 to 2
NGA_2016_FLOAT, ARG_2023_25_FX, NGA_1999_UNIFY
Exchange rate: Free float / unifyYear 1: Naira fall 40 to 120; Street premium -40 to -20; Inflation 5 to 12; Growth -1 to 0; Approval -12 to -6
Year 2: Naira fall 0 to 40; Inflation 0 to 4; Reserves 2 to 8
Later years: Naira fall -5 to 10; Street premium -5 to 0; Inflation -8 to -3; Reserves 2 to 8; Approval 1 to 3
Debt/GDP jumps by [3,8] in year 1 if external debt share is high (naira value of FX debt).
NGA_1986_SFEM, NGA_2023_UNIFY, EGY_2016_FLOAT
Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Ways & Means (CBN overdraft)Every year: Inflation 2 to 5; Naira fall 3 to 10; Street premium 3 to 10; Debt/GDP 1 to 3; Approval 0 to 1NGA_2015_23_WM
Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Borrow at home (bonds, T-bills)Every year: Debt/GDP 1 to 3; Growth -0.5 to 0; interest_burden +[3,6] pp of revenueNGA_2023_26_DOMESTIC
Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Borrow abroad (Eurobonds, loans)Every year: Debt/GDP 1 to 3; Reserves 1 to 4
If debt_gdp > 70 or (oil crash AND reserves < 15): 50% chance of debt crisis -> inflation +[10,25], gdp_growth -[2,5], approval -20, forced switch to borrow_relief_restraint
NGA_1980S_DEBT, GHA_2022_DEBT
Borrowing (incl. CBN Ways & Means): Cut the deficit / seek reliefEvery year: Debt/GDP -4 to -1; Growth -1 to 0; Approval -3 to 0
If oil > $90 for 2+ years, unlock 'pay off creditors' event: debt_gdp -[8,15] once
NGA_2005_PARIS, GHA_2022_DEBT
Tax: Cut taxesEvery year: Deficit 0.3 to 1; Growth 0 to 0.5; Approval 2 to 4NGA_1975_RELIEF, NGA_2025_TAX_ACTS
Tax: Raise VATYear 1: Inflation 0.5 to 1.5; Deficit -0.8 to -0.3; Approval -5 to -2
Later years: Deficit -0.8 to -0.3
NGA_2020_VAT
Tax: Reform and widen the baseYear 1: Deficit -0.3 to 0; Approval -2 to 0
Later years: Deficit -1 to -0.3; Approval 0 to 1
Revenue gain arrives with a 1-year lag (collection build-up).
NGA_2025_TAX_ACTS
Tax: Keep relying on oilEvery year: Deficit 0 to 0
deficit +1.5 per -$20 oil below $70; -1.0 per +$20 above
NGA_OIL_DEPENDENCE
Spending: Spend big nowEvery year: Growth 0.5 to 1.5; Inflation 1 to 3; Deficit 1 to 3; Approval 3 to 6
Cutting later costs approval -[8,12]
NGA_1975_BOOM
Spending: Cut spendingEvery year: Growth -2 to -0.5; Deficit -2 to -1; Inflation -1 to 0; Approval -6 to -3NGA_1982_AUSTERITY
Spending: Prioritise infrastructureYear 1: Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 0 to 1
Later years: Growth 0.3 to 1; Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 1 to 2
30% chance per year that half the growth effect is lost (padding/non-execution)
NGA_2026_CAPEX, IDN_2015_INFRA
Spending: Wages and cash supportEvery year: Deficit 0.5 to 1.5; Inflation 0.5 to 1.5; Approval 3 to 6NGA_2024_WAGE
Why bundles matter: interactions
  • If fuel removed (big_bang or with_transfers) AND fx_free_float in the same year, then inflation +[2,4] extra (double shock); approval -5 extra, but reversal probability halves next year (bundled reform) (NGA_2023_REMOVAL, NGA_2023_UNIFY, NGA_1986_SFEM)
  • If fuel_keep_fixed AND fx depreciation > 30% that year, then subsidy cost doubles: deficit +[1,2] extra (NGA_2022_SUBSIDY_COST, NGA_2015_23_WINDOWS)
  • If borrow_central_bank AND fx_hard_peg or fx_multiple_windows, then parallel_premium +[5,15] extra (NGA_2015_23_WM, NGA_2015_23_WINDOWS)
  • If fx_free_float AND borrow_central_bank, then float fails to settle: later-year inflation effect becomes +[2,6] instead of falling (NGA_2015_23_WM, NGA_2023_UNIFY)
  • If deficit > 5% of GDP for 2 straight years, then debt_gdp +[2,4] extra per year; if borrowing is domestic, gdp_growth -0.5 (NGA_2026_CAPEX, NGA_2023_26_DOMESTIC)
  • If tight money assumed (not a player lever), then the CBN is treated as independent: if inflation > 25, CBN raises rates automatically -> next year inflation -[2,5], gdp_growth -[0.5,1] (NGA_2023_UNIFY)

Not applied: the rule on a deficit above 5% of GDP for two years needs a sourced starting deficit, which the start scenarios do not include yet.

Oil, approval, protests and the election

Each year one oil event is drawn: crash 15%, spike 10%, normal 75%. Post-2023 a spike both raises revenue and raises pump prices (Punch, 3 May 2026). ILLUSTRATIVE: roughly 3 big crashes (1986, 2014-16, 2020) and 1-2 spikes in ~40 years of the EI series; not a statistical estimate.

  • inflation above 20%: -1 per point above 20 (cap -12)
  • gdp_growth above 3%: +1 per point above 3 (cap +4)
  • gdp_growth below 0: -5
  • parallel_premium above 30%: -3 (dollar scarcity stories)
  • election year (year 4): approval >= 50 -> re-elected; 40-49 -> runoff coin-flip; < 40 -> lose

Protest check: approval < 35 AND (a fuel removal or a float happened this year OR inflation > 30); chance 50%. Real protests: Jan 2012 strike (partial reversal); 1989 anti-SAP riots (at least 22 dead); Aug 2024 #EndBadGovernance (at least 24 killed). The game should not gamify casualties; show them as historical context only.

The real numbers, 1980 to 2025

What actually happened to prices and growth while governments pulled these levers. GDP growth uses one series throughout: the World Bank's WDI (constant prices). The NBS rebased its GDP in 2025, so its figures for 2020 to 2025 differ.

Nigeria, 1980 to 2025: inflation and GDP growth, per cent a year (World Bank WDI)-10103050701980198519901995200020052010201520202025
Inflation (CPI, %) GDP growth (%, World Bank WDI, constant prices)

Sources: WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. CPI was rebased in early 2025, so 2025 inflation is not strictly comparable with 2024. WDI's 1981 growth figure (-13.1%) reflects the overvalued naira of the time; treat it with care.

All 32 real episodes

Open the episode library

VAT 5% -> 7.5% Nigeria, 1 Feb 2020

The Finance Act 2019 raised the standard VAT rate from 5% to 7.5% from 1 Feb 2020, just before the COVID oil crash.

Protests and strikes: None found.

Gap VAT revenue before/after not collected (FIRS/NBS VAT reports).

Sources: Bomes Resources Consulting, May 2020, summary of FIRS information circular on VAT amendments in the Finance Act 2019 (rate 7.5% for supplies on/after 1 Feb 2020); Detail Solicitors, 2020, 'Analysis of FIRS circular on implementation of VAT provisions in the Finance Act'; World Bank WDI API, Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)

Occupy Nigeria Nigeria, 1-16 Jan 2012

Petrol went from N65 to about N141 on 1 Jan 2012; a national strike and protests followed ('Remove corruption, not subsidy'); on 16 Jan the price was cut back to N97 (partial reversal).

  • Price: N65 -> N141 -> N97 [GNAD_2012]
  • Oil 2012: $111.7/bbl

Protests and strikes: Nationwide general strike and street protests, 9-16 Jan 2012.

Gap casualty figures for Jan 2012 not collected from a verified source.

Sources: BBC News, 2 Jan 2012 (fuel subsidy removal protests; N65 to N141+); Global Nonviolent Action Database (Swarthmore), 'Nigerians protest removal of fuel subsidy, 2012' (price cut back to N97, 16 Jan 2012); Vanguard, 'Timeline of fuel price increments', 26 Dec 2017

2023 unification ('willing buyer, willing seller') Nigeria, 14 Jun 2023-present

All windows collapsed into one market on 14 Jun 2023. The rate closed at N664.04 on day one, the parallel rate hit about N1,830-1,900 in Feb 2024, then the market stabilised: N1,329.50 official vs about N1,370-1,385 parallel at end-Sep 2026; reserves $55.25bn (18 Sep 2026).

Protests and strikes: #EndBadGovernance protests 1-10 Aug 2024: at least 24 killed (Amnesty) - cost-of-living driven (FX + fuel together).

Sources: TheCable, 14 Jun 2023 (CBN unifies all FX windows); Nairametrics, 14 Jun 2023, 'Exchange rate depreciates by 29% to N664.04/$1 at I&E window'; Reuters, 14 Jun 2023, 'Nigeria allows naira to drop more than 36% on official market'; Nairametrics, 21 Feb 2024, 'Naira hits record low of N1,830/$1 at the black market'; World Bank WDI API, Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026); Guardian Nigeria, 15 Jan 2025 (inflation 34.80%, Dec 2024); Nairametrics, 1 Oct 2026, 'Interbank FX turnover jumps 123% as naira strengthens to N1,329.50/$' (NFEM close 30 Sep 2026); Vanguard, 30 Sep 2026, 'Naira rises, now N1,370/$ in parallel market' (gap N41); Premium Times, Sep 2026, 'Nigeria inflation falls to 15.39% in August - NBS' (Aug 2025: 23.14%); Premium Times, Sep 2026, 'FX pressures recede as reserves hit 18-year high, current account surplus rises 67.9% - CBN' ($55.25bn at 18 Sep 2026 per MPC communique); Amnesty International, 28 Nov 2024, 'Nigeria: Police used excessive force to violently quash #EndBadGovernance protests' (at least 24 killed, 1-10 Aug 2024)

Stepwise petrol hikes, 1978-1994 Nigeria, 1978-1994

Pump prices were raised in steps (1978, 1982, 1986, 1988, 1989 two-tier, 1991, 1993) and partly reversed (Shonekan 70k->N5 in Nov 1993, back to N3.25; Abacha N3.25->N15 cut to N11 in Oct 1994). Inflation eroded each increase.

Protests and strikes: Student protests 1988; Senate protest 1993; anti-SAP riots 1989.

Sources: Vanguard, 'Timeline of fuel price increments', 26 Dec 2017; New Nigerian, 2 Jan 1989, p.1 (two-tier petrol price 42k to 60k 'to finance ... structural adjustment pains'; OCR); New Nigerian, 11 Nov 1993, p.1 (Senate protests fuel increase; OCR); New Nigerian, 5 Oct 1994, p.1 (Abacha: petrol N11.00, previously N3.25; OCR); US Department of State, Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1989: Nigeria (via ecoi.net) - at least 22 dead in anti-SAP riots

The administered 'strong naira' Nigeria, 1979-1985

The official rate was set administratively and dollars were rationed through import licences while oil earnings fell; reserves drained and the 1982 Economic Stabilisation Act followed.

  • Official rate 1981 (annual avg): N0.6177/$ [WDI_FX]
  • Total reserves incl. gold, end-year: $10.64bn (1980) -> $4.17bn (1981) -> $1.93bn (1982); import cover 5.8 -> 2.0 -> 1.2 months [WDI_RES]

Protests and strikes: No mass protest recorded in sources used; austerity package April 1982.

Gap no reliable 1981 parallel-market rate found (see site_claims_check.md).

Sources: World Bank WDI API, Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026); World Bank WDI API, Total reserves (includes gold, current US$), FI.RES.TOTL.CD, and Total reserves in months of imports, FI.RES.TOTL.MO, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026); New Nigerian, 21 Apr 1982, p.1 'Nation Goes Austere' (Economic Stabilisation Act; OCR)

Boom-time loans, bust-time arrears Nigeria, 1980-1991

Federal and state governments took syndicated loans in the boom; by 1984 debt service took 'about 28.42%' of export earnings; Paris Club rescheduling followed in Dec 1986; by 1989 debt service was projected at about 80% of export income. Babangida rejected the IMF loan (Dec 1985).

  • Debt service ratio 1984: about 28.42% [CODESRIA_1984]
  • External debt / GDP 1980 -> 1989: 13.9% -> 68.5% (calc.) [WDI_EXTDEBT]
  • Oil price 1985 -> 1986: $27.6 -> $14.4/bbl

Protests and strikes: Anti-SAP riots 1989 (see SFEM).

Sources: Buhari 1984 budget speech (National Concord, 10-12 May 1984) reprinted in Africa Development (CODESRIA): debt service 'about 28.42 %'; New Nigerian, 18 Dec 1986, p.1 (Paris Club rescheduling agreed; OCR); New Nigerian, 14 Dec 1985, p.1 (IMF loan rejected; NLC reaction; OCR); The Analyst, Vol.4 No.1, Jan-Feb 1989 ('How the Debts Piled Up'; archive.org); Los Angeles Times, 25 Nov 1989 (debt service ~80% of export income; inflation 'as much as 50%'); World Bank WDI/IDS API, External debt stocks, total (current US$), DT.DOD.DECT.CD, Nigeria; World Bank WDI API, GDP (current US$), NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, Nigeria

The June 2016 'flexible' float Nigeria, 20 Jun 2016

The CBN removed the N197 peg; the official rate moved to about N280-282 on day one. The parallel rate was about N345 that day and kept weakening into 2017, so the float was partial in practice.

Protests and strikes: None found in sources used.

Sources: Reuters, 20 Jun 2016, 'Nigerian naira tumbles 30 percent after peg removed'; Nairametrics, 20 Jun 2016, 'Results are in: Nigeria's new official exchange rate after currency float' (official ~N281.85/$; parallel ~N345/$)

Relying on oil revenue Nigeria, 2014-2016

When oil fell from about $112 (2014) to below $50, Nigeria went into recession; crude sales were '70% of government income'.

  • Oil share of govt income: 70% [BBC_2016]
  • Oil 2014 -> 2016: $99.0 -> $43.7 [EI_OIL]
  • GDP 2016: -1.62% (WDI)

Protests and strikes: None directly.

Sources: BBC News, 31 Aug 2016 (Nigeria in recession; GDP -2.06% Q2 2016; crude = '70% of government income'); Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl)

Indonesia redirects subsidy savings IDN, 2015

Subsidy savings went to infrastructure, social programmes and SOE capital injections; infrastructure spending rose sharply in 2015, though execution fell short of targets.

Protests and strikes: See IDN_2015_FUEL.

Gap the '+42% infrastructure spending' figure comes from a search summary of the World Bank note and was not verified in the PDF; not used as a number.

Sources: IISD/GSI, 'Financing development with fossil fuel subsidies: the reallocation of Indonesia's gasoline and diesel subsidies in 2015' (savings ~Rp211trn; gasoline subsidy removed Jan 2015; diesel fixed Rp1,000/l); World Bank MFM Practice Note 13, 'Closing Indonesia's infrastructure gap' (fuel subsidy 2.4% of GDP 2014 to 0.6% 2015; search-result summary); World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG / NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG / PA.NUS.FCRF for IDN, EGY, GHA, ARG

Ways & Means: printing to fund the budget Nigeria, 2015-2023

CBN overdrafts to the federal government rose from N648.26bn (Jun 2015) to N19.91trn (Jun 2022), far above the CBN Act limit (5% of prior-year revenue); N22.7trn was securitised into bonds in May 2023. From 2024 the CBN said it would grant no new advances until old ones were repaid and kept the 5% cap.

Protests and strikes: None directly.

Sources: Nigerian Tribune, 15 Aug 2022, 'FG borrows N19.3trn from CBN in 7 years' (W&M N648.26bn Jun 2015; N856.33bn Dec 2015; N2.23trn 2016; N3.31trn 2017; N5.41trn 2018; N8.72trn 2019; N13.11trn 2020; N17.46trn 2021; N19.91trn Jun 2022; CBN data); Nairametrics, 9 May 2023 (Senate approves securitisation of N22.7trn Ways & Means); Leadership, 'Law Bars CBN From Advancing More Loans To FG - Cardoso' (Feb 2024; search-result summary, page not opened); Punch, Sep 2024, 'CBN defies N'Assembly, maintains 5% ways and means advance limit' (search-result summary, page not opened)

Ghana's 2022 debt crisis GHA, 2022-2023

After years of Eurobond borrowing, Ghana launched a domestic debt exchange (5 Dec 2022) and suspended most external debt payments (19 Dec 2022), then took a $3bn IMF ECF. Inflation hit 54.1% in Dec 2022.

Protests and strikes: GAP: protest data not collected.

Gap the $3bn IMF ECF approval date not separately sourced here (search summary only).

Sources: Ghana Ministry of Finance, 5 Dec 2022, 'Commencement of Domestic Debt Exchange'; Reuters, 19 Dec 2022, 'Ghana to default on most external debt as economic crisis worsens'; Reuters, 11 Jan 2023, 'Ghana inflation hits 54% in December, a 22-year high' (54.1%); World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG / NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG / PA.NUS.FCRF for IDN, EGY, GHA, ARG; IMF WEO via DataMapper API, GGXWDG_NGDP for IDN, EGY, GHA, ARG

Borrowing at market rates Nigeria, 2023-2026

With W&M closed, the government borrowed through bonds, T-bills and Eurobonds at high rates (MPR peaked at 27.50%). Public debt rose from N87.38trn (Jun 2023) to N166.79trn ($120.93bn) at 30 Jun 2026, much of the naira rise reflecting devaluation and the W&M securitisation. 2026 budget debt service: N15.8trn vs N36.87trn projected revenue.

Protests and strikes: None directly.

Gap DMO PDF not opened; figures via Nairametrics.

Sources: Nairametrics, 8 Aug 2026 (public debt N159.35trn at 31 Mar 2026; N87.38trn Jun 2023; DMO rate N1,386.2156/$); Nairametrics, 26 Sep 2026 (public debt N166.79trn / $120.93bn at 30 Jun 2026; domestic N91.59trn; DMO data); DMO, 'Nigeria's Total Public Debt as at June 30, 2026' (listing page; PDF not opened); CBN MPC Communique No. 155, 25-26 Nov 2024 (MPR 27.50%), via Proshare; Nairametrics (opinion/analysis by A. Morakinyo), 29 Sep 2026, 'The N68 trillion budget and the deficit Nigeria won't name' (2026 Act N68.32trn signed 17 Apr 2026; debt service N15.8trn; capital N32.2trn; revenue N36.87trn; benchmark $64.85; 1.84mbpd; IMF: interest 53.7% of revenue 2026); IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)

'Fuel subsidy is gone' Nigeria, 29 May 2023-present

Tinubu declared the subsidy gone at his inauguration; within two days petrol went from N189 to as much as N557. Combined with FX unification, pump prices later reached about N1,385 (Lagos) to N1,456 (Yobe) per litre by Sep 2026, now set by Dangote/imports and world prices. Labour suspended its June 2023 strike; a N70,000 minimum wage was agreed in July 2024.

Protests and strikes: NLC/TUC strike threatened then suspended (Jun 2023); #EndBadGovernance protests Aug 2024 (at least 24 killed, Amnesty).

Sources: Channels TV, 29 May 2023, full text of Tinubu inaugural speech ('fuel subsidy is gone'); Reuters, 31 May 2023 (petrol 'to as high as 557 naira ... from 189 naira'); Reuters, 5 Jun 2023, 'Nigeria's main union to suspend strike over petrol subsidy'; Nigerian NewsDirect, Jul 2024, 'NLC accepts N70,000 minimum wage' (search-result summary); Amnesty International, 28 Nov 2024, 'Nigeria: Police used excessive force to violently quash #EndBadGovernance protests' (at least 24 killed, 1-10 Aug 2024); Legit.ng, 25 Sep 2026, NNPC pump prices after Dangote cut ex-gantry to N1,325 (Lagos N1,385; Abuja N1,430; Yobe N1,456)

Egypt's 2016 float EGY, 3 Nov 2016

Egypt floated the pound, moving from about EGP 8.88/$ to 13 and then weaker, tied to a 3-year $12bn IMF Extended Fund Facility (approved 11 Nov 2016). Inflation peaked around 33% in mid-2017.

Protests and strikes: GAP: protest data not collected.

Sources: AP, 3 Nov 2016, 'Egypt devalues, floats its currency, meeting key IMF demand'; IMF press release 16/501, 11 Nov 2016, 'IMF Executive Board approves US$12 billion Extended Arrangement for Egypt'; IMF Country Report 18/14 (Egypt, Jan 2018; inflation peak after float); World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG / NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG / PA.NUS.FCRF for IDN, EGY, GHA, ARG

The 'Biggest Relief Budget' Nigeria, Apr 1975

In the oil boom the 1975 budget cut excise duties and company tax 'as a way of beating inflation' and raised the travel allowance; the Udoji pay award came the same season.

Protests and strikes: None (boom).

Gap 1975 is before the 1980-2025 macro series; no snapshot.

Sources: Nigerian Observer, 1 Apr 1975, p.1 'B-I-G-G-E-S-T Relief Budget!' (Wikimedia Commons); Nigerian Tribune, 3 Jan 1975, p.1 'Udoji: The Neglected Majority' (Wikimedia Commons)

Austerity: 1982 and 1984 Nigeria, Apr 1982-1985

Shagari's Economic Stabilisation Act (Apr 1982) recalled import licences, cut travel allowances and raised petrol 15k->20k; Buhari's 1984 budget put all imports under licence: 'No medicine is without pain'.

  • GDP growth 1982 / 1983 / 1984: -6.80% / -10.92% / -1.12% [WDI_GDP]
  • Inflation 1983 / 1984: 23.2% / 17.8%

Protests and strikes: GAP: no protest data collected.

Sources: New Nigerian, 21 Apr 1982, p.1 'Nation Goes Austere' (Economic Stabilisation Act; OCR); Buhari 1984 budget speech (National Concord, 10-12 May 1984) reprinted in Africa Development (CODESRIA): debt service 'about 28.42 %'; World Bank WDI API, GDP growth (annual %), NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)

Argentina: from 'cepo' controls to a band ARG, Dec 2023-Apr 2025

Argentina ran capital controls ('cepo') with parallel rates; on 12 Dec 2023 the official peso was devalued from about 366 to 800/$ with spending cuts; in April 2025 most controls were lifted and the peso floats inside a ARS 1,000-1,400 band, backed by a $20bn IMF EFF.

Protests and strikes: GAP: protest data not collected.

Sources: Reuters, 12 Dec 2023, 'Argentina's Caputo announces peso devaluation to 800 per dollar, spending cuts'; Reuters, 11 Jan 2024, 'Argentina annual inflation tops 211%, highest since early 90s' (Dec 2023 m/m 25.5%); BCRA, Apr 2025, 'Beginning of stage 3 of the economic program ... exchange rate to float within a band' (ARS 1,000-1,400); Reuters, 11 Apr 2025, 'Argentina seals $20 billion IMF deal, tears down currency controls'; World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG / NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG / PA.NUS.FCRF for IDN, EGY, GHA, ARG

A capital-heavy 2026 budget Nigeria, FY2026

The 2026 Appropriation Act (N68.32trn, signed 17 Apr 2026) allots N32.2trn to capital, about half; analysts derive a deficit of about N31.45trn (6.41% of GDP, BudgIT) - above the 3% Fiscal Responsibility Act ceiling - and BudgIT flagged about N6.93trn of questionable inserted projects.

Protests and strikes: None.

Gap source is an analytical opinion piece; capital-budget execution rate for 2026 not available.

Sources: Nairametrics (opinion/analysis by A. Morakinyo), 29 Sep 2026, 'The N68 trillion budget and the deficit Nigeria won't name' (2026 Act N68.32trn signed 17 Apr 2026; debt service N15.8trn; capital N32.2trn; revenue N36.87trn; benchmark $64.85; 1.84mbpd; IMF: interest 53.7% of revenue 2026)

2026 US-Iran war spike World, Feb-Sep 2026

The US-Iran war began 28 Feb 2026 with oil below $70; Bonny Light traded at $134 by end-April; Punch estimated a N5.13trn gross oil windfall over March-April vs the $64.85 budget benchmark, while Dangote raised petrol prices. EIA's Brent spot price was $113.96 on 29 Sep 2026.

Protests and strikes: Fuel price complaints; no major protest found.

Gap 2026 annual average oil price not available yet.

Sources: Punch, 3 May 2026, 'US-Iran war: Nigeria earns N5tn oil windfall amid rising fuel hardship' (war began 28 Feb 2026; Bonny Light $134; March avg $95.03, April avg $127.05); US EIA, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (RBRTE), daily series; 29 Sep 2026: $113.96/bbl; ThisDay, 14 Sep 2026, 'NUPRC: Oil output ... climbed to 1.677m bpd in August'; Nairametrics (opinion/analysis by A. Morakinyo), 29 Sep 2026, 'The N68 trillion budget and the deficit Nigeria won't name' (2026 Act N68.32trn signed 17 Apr 2026; debt service N15.8trn; capital N32.2trn; revenue N36.87trn; benchmark $64.85; 1.84mbpd; IMF: interest 53.7% of revenue 2026)

Abacha's N22 peg Nigeria, Jan 1994-1998

The 1994 budget re-pegged the naira at N22/$ after the SAP float, with controls; the CBN calls it a 'policy reversal'. A Kaduna business leader welcomed pegging 'from 48 to 22 Naira', i.e. the market rate was over twice the peg. Guided deregulation (AFEM) from 1995 created a dual system until 1999.

  • Peg: N22/$ [NN_PEG_1994]
  • Market rate implied in Jan 1994: about N48/$ [NN_PEG_REACT_1994]
  • Inflation 1994 / 1995: 57.0% / 72.8%
  • GDP growth 1994 / 1995: -1.81% / -0.07%

Protests and strikes: GAP: no protest data collected for 1994 FX specifically (fuel price protests Oct 1994 are in the fuel lever).

Sources: New Nigerian, 20 Jan 1994, p.1 ('a pegged exchange rate put at N 22 to the dollar'; OCR); New Nigerian, 17 Jan 1994, p.2 (Kaduna business leader: 'pegging the exchange rate from 48 to 22 Naira'; OCR); CBN, 'History of Foreign Exchange Management'; New Nigerian, 18 Jan 1995, p.2 (1995 budget: 'guided deregulation'; OCR)

N70,000 minimum wage and relief Nigeria, Jul 2024

After strikes and negotiation, labour accepted a N70,000 minimum wage (Jul 2024), up from N30,000; earlier SAP-era parallel: the 1989 'SAP relief package'.

Protests and strikes: NLC strikes and negotiations 2024.

Gap previous N30,000 level not separately sourced here. a June 2024 general strike is referenced via Wikipedia only - not used.

Sources: Nigerian NewsDirect, Jul 2024, 'NLC accepts N70,000 minimum wage' (search-result summary); US Department of State, Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1989: Nigeria (via ecoi.net) - at least 22 dead in anti-SAP riots

Multiple windows and the '41 items' Nigeria, Jun 2015-Jun 2023

After the 2014 oil crash the CBN held the official rate, denied official FX for 40 listed import categories (23 Jun 2015), floated briefly in June 2016, opened the I&E window in 2017, and ran several rates until 14 Jun 2023. Buhari said devaluation would 'kill' the naira.

Protests and strikes: No single FX protest; business complaints about FX access (BBC 2016).

Sources: CBN circular TED/FEM/FPC/GEN/01/010, 23 Jun 2015 (items 'not valid for foreign exchange'; Wayback copy); Channels TV, 28 Jan 2016 (Buhari: 'I won't kill the naira'); Reuters, 20 Jun 2016, 'Nigerian naira tumbles 30 percent after peg removed'; Nigerian Tribune, Feb 2017, 'Naira crashes to N520/dollar as CBN plans increased supply' (official ~N305.50); BBC News, 31 Aug 2016 (Nigeria in recession; GDP -2.06% Q2 2016; crude = '70% of government income'); CBN, 'History of Foreign Exchange Management'

Indonesia's 2014-15 fuel subsidy reform IDN, Nov 2014-Jan 2015

Jokowi raised subsidised Premium petrol from Rp6,500 to Rp8,500 (18 Nov 2014), then in Jan 2015 removed the gasoline subsidy and fixed diesel support at Rp1,000/l, timed with falling oil prices; savings of about Rp211trn were reallocated to infrastructure and social programmes.

Protests and strikes: Protests and clashes in some cities (e.g. Surabaya, 19 Nov 2014), smaller than past fuel protests.

Sources: Jakarta Post, 18 Nov 2014, 'Govt slashes fuel subsidies' (Premium Rp6,500 to Rp8,500); BBC News, 18 Nov 2014, 'Indonesia raises fuel prices by more than 30%'; Indoleft, 19 Nov 2014, 'Fuel price protest in Surabaya ends in clash, five arrested'; IISD/GSI, 'Financing development with fossil fuel subsidies: the reallocation of Indonesia's gasoline and diesel subsidies in 2015' (savings ~Rp211trn; gasoline subsidy removed Jan 2015; diesel fixed Rp1,000/l); World Bank MFM Practice Note 13, 'Closing Indonesia's infrastructure gap' (fuel subsidy 2.4% of GDP 2014 to 0.6% 2015; search-result summary); World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG / NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG / PA.NUS.FCRF for IDN, EGY, GHA, ARG

Paris Club exit Nigeria, Oct 2005-2006

Nigeria agreed a comprehensive treatment: about $18bn (about 60%) cancelled, Nigeria paying $12.4bn, using high oil revenue.

Protests and strikes: None.

Sources: Paris Club press release, 20 Oct 2005 (Nigeria: cancellation ~US$18bn, ~60%; Nigeria pays US$12.4bn); IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections)

SFEM: the first float Nigeria, Sep 1986-Jul 1987

Under SAP, the Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market auctioned dollars; the naira went from about N1.33 to N4.6174 at the first auction (26 Sep 1986), firmed to about N3.00 by early December, and the tiers merged in July 1987. No IMF loan, but an IMF-style package.

  • First SFEM rate: N4.6174/$ (from ~N1.33) [NN_SFEM_1986]
  • Marginal rate 4 Dec 1986: N3.0005/$ [NN_SFEM_DEC86]
  • Official avg 1987: N4.016/$
  • Inflation 1988 / 1989: 54.5% / 50.5%

Protests and strikes: Anti-SAP riots May-June 1989: at least 22 dead (official count, US State Dept).

Sources: New Nigerian, 27 Sep 1986, p.1 (first SFEM rate N4.6174/$; OCR); New Nigerian, 5 Dec 1986, p.3 'No stopping the Naira' (marginal 3.0005; OCR); World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program', 13 May 1994, para 2.7; CBN, 'History of Foreign Exchange Management'; US Department of State, Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1989: Nigeria (via ecoi.net) - at least 22 dead in anti-SAP riots; Los Angeles Times, 25 Nov 1989 (debt service ~80% of export income; inflation 'as much as 50%')

The 2025 tax reform acts Nigeria, Signed 26 Jun 2025; effective 1 Jan 2026

Four Acts (Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act) consolidated tax law, replaced FIRS with the NRS, kept VAT at 7.5%, exempted small companies (turnover up to N50m) and the first N800,000 of personal income, set a 25% top PIT rate and a 4% development levy replacing several levies.

Protests and strikes: None major found.

Gap no full-year revenue outturn yet under the new Acts (first year is 2026).

Sources: State House, Jun 2025, 'President Tinubu: New Tax Laws, the way forward for Nigeria's prosperity' (four Acts signed 26 Jun 2025); BBC News, Jun 2025, 'Nigeria's tax reform: What to know as President Bola Tinubu signs new laws'; EY Global Tax News, 'Nigeria Tax Act, 2025 has been signed - highlights' (effective 1 Jan 2026; small company threshold; 4% development levy); KPMG Nigeria, Jul 2025, 'Nigeria Tax Act (NTA), 2025' update; PwC Nigeria, 'The Nigerian Tax Reform Acts' (PIT: first N800,000 exempt; top rate 25%; VAT 7.5%); Prompt News, 2026, 'FG unveils guidelines for implementation of Tax Acts 2025' (Ministry of Finance General Guidelines); Vanguard, Jul 2026, 'Oyedele sets up new VAT Modification Order committee' (six-week mandate)

Share text: “In 1985 a dollar cost ₦0.89 officially and about ₦3.79 on the street. The World Bank put the gap at over 300%.” Source: World Bank WDI API, Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average), PA.NUS.FCRF, Nigeria (last updated 13 Jul 2026)

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