1984–1985 · Military

Muhammadu Buhari (military)

Tough-love austerity: queues, import licences, new banknotes and closed borders, all in the name of discipline.

Scorecard Draft

Military: took power unconstitutionally

Military government. Took power unconstitutionally; political rights are not scored here (see Freedom House), §5

In office 1983-12-31 to 1985-08-27 · scored years: 1984-1985 (2). How we score · Public review

Composite score31/100Draft, open for public reviewEconomic outcomes 50%, policy credibility 25%, institutional reforms 25%.
Oil contextOil neutral (-16%)Average $28.17 a barrel in 1984-1985 vs $33.38 before (1979-1983). Shown for context; the score is not adjusted for oil. [EI_OIL]
Data flags
  • Debt external debt/GDP used (not comparable)
  • Evidence gap on credibility Q4 (scored 0.5)

Economic outcomes 50%

37/100 Draft

Computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data.

Indicator scores (0 to 100), 1984-1985 (2)
IndicatorMeasuredScore
Inflation12.63% a year on average75
Growth2.4% a year on average34
Naira stabilityOfficial rate 0.7665 -> 0.8938 (₦ per $); 16.6% a year34
Public debtWDI external debt/GDP (not comparable with the IMF general-government series): 24.2 -> 25.3% of GDP; 1.1 pp a year38
Reserves2.13 months of imports at the end2

Evidence: method, Pillar A · sources

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Policy credibility 25%

2/4 (50/100) Draft, open for public review

2/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Its controls held, but the parallel premium was above 300%. Central-bank credit growth straddles both governments, and budget execution is unevidenced.

  1. Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit? 0.5 Disputed

    Disputed. Credit to government rose by over 70% from early 1983 to end-1984, a period that straddles Shagari and Buhari (World Bank 1994). The 1984 budget aimed at restraint. [WB_SAP_PARAS] [concord84]

  2. Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium? 0

    No. Parallel premium 327.6% (1984) and 325.8% (1985) (CBN Bullion). The World Bank says the spread 'exceeded 300 percent' in 1985. [CBN_BULLION_2006] [WB_SAP_PARAS]

  3. Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal? 1

    Its controls (universal import licensing, countertrade, the 1984 currency change) stayed in place until the 1985 coup, well over 12 months. [jprs84073] [upi840313] [upi840424] [nn850829]

  4. Budgets broadly implemented as passed? 0.5 Evidence gap

    Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 1984-85. [concord84]

Evidence: method, Pillar B · sources

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Sources for this card (15)
  1. CBN_BULLION_2006 CBN Bullion Vol. 30 No. 3 (Jul-Sep 2006), Table 1: official vs parallel N/$ and parallel premium (%), 1973-2002 (2006) accessed 2026-10-02; PDF text checked
  2. EI_OIL Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl) (2026)
  3. IDEMUDIA_1986 T. Idemudia & M.A. Abdul-Malik, 'Nigerian oil: the case for countertrade', OPEC Bulletin 17(1), Feb 1986, pp.27-33 (OSTI/ETDEWEB abstract) (1986-02-01)
  4. KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978 Paul Krugman & Lance Taylor, 'Contractionary effects of devaluation', Journal of International Economics 8(3), 1978, pp.445-456 (RePEc record) (1978)
  5. WB_SAP_PARAS World Bank Report 13053-UNI, 'Nigeria: Structural Adjustment Program - Policies, Implementation, and Impact' (13 May 1994), paras 1.17, 1.21, 2.2, 3.18 and Table 3.7, 4.27, 4.59-4.60, 6.22-6.23, Statistical Table 9 (OCR text) (1994-05-13) OCR text checked on 2026-10-02
  6. WDI_CPI_1960 World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  7. WDI_EXTDEBT_1970 World Bank WDI API, DT.DOD.DECT.CD (external debt stocks, US$) / NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (GDP, US$), Nigeria, 1970-2024 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  8. WDI_FX_1960 World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  9. WDI_GDP_1960 World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  10. WDI_RESMO_1960 World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  11. concord84 Buhari 1984 budget speech as reported in National Concord, 10-12 May 1984, reprinted in Africa Development (CODESRIA)
  12. jprs84073 JPRS Sub-Saharan Africa Report JPRS-SSA-84-073 (21 Jun 1984), pp.60-61: reprint of Lagos Daily Times, 8 May 1984, pp.1,5 (archive.org, n67-n68)
  13. nn850829 New Nigerian, 29 Aug 1985, p.3 (countertrade criticised; OCR)
  14. upi840313 UPI, 13 Mar 1984, 'Brazil-Nigeria in oil barter deal'
  15. upi840424 UPI, 24 Apr 1984, 'Nigerians bank money before exchange of currency'

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