2015–2023 · Civilian

Muhammadu Buhari (civilian)

Rerun of 1984: dollar rationing, closed borders, new banknotes, and long queues at banks and filling stations.

Scorecard Draft

In office 2015-05-29 to 2023-05-29 · scored years: 2015-2022 (8). How we score · Public review

About this card. The official-rate FX score overstates stability; the multi-window regime and premium are scored under credibility Q2.

Composite score51/100Draft, open for public reviewEconomic outcomes 50%, policy credibility 25%, institutional reforms 25%.
Oil contextOil headwind (-39%)Average $62.49 a barrel in 2015-2022 vs $102.01 before (2010-2014). Shown for context; the score is not adjusted for oil. [EI_OIL]
Data flags
  • Evidence gap on credibility Q4 (scored 0.5)

Economic outcomes 50%

39/100 Draft

Computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data.

Indicator scores (0 to 100), 2015-2022 (8)
IndicatorMeasuredScore
Inflation14.22% a year on average69
Growth0.63% a year on average9
Naira stabilityOfficial rate 192.4 -> 426 (₦ per $); 12.02% a year52
Public debtIMF WEO general-government gross debt/GDP: 14.9 -> 29.8% of GDP; 2.13 pp a year17
Reserves4.82 months of imports at the end47

Evidence: method, Pillar A · sources

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Policy credibility 25%

1/4 (25/100) Draft, open for public review

1/4 (Q1 0; Q2 0; Q3 0.5; Q4 0.5). Ways & Means went far beyond the 5% cap, with multiple FX windows and a large premium. Some reforms lasted, but the 2022 subsidy removal was suspended.

  1. Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit? 0

    No. Ways & Means grew 'from N856 billion to N23.8 trillion' over seven years, overshooting the CBN Act s.38(2) cap of 5% of the previous year's revenue. In 2017 it stood at N1.1trn, 37.2% of the previous year's revenue (Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024). N22.7trn was securitised in May 2023. [DT_WM_50BN] [TRIBUNE_WM_2022] [NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023]

  2. Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium? 0

    No. There were multiple windows (official, I&E from Apr 2017, BDC) and a large premium: N520 parallel vs about N305.50 official (Feb 2017). [NAIRAMETRICS_IE_2017] [TRIBUNE_520_2017] [AIICO_MAY2023]

  3. Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal? 0.5 Disputed

    Disputed. The TSA (2015), Finance Acts (from 2019) and PIA (2021) lasted. But the planned subsidy removal was suspended indefinitely in Jan 2022, and the Jun 2016 'float' became a managed multi-window regime. [DT_TSA_2015] [SH_PIA_2021] [THISDAY_SUSP_2022] [NAIRAMETRICS_FLOAT_2016]

  4. Budgets broadly implemented as passed? 0.5 Evidence gap

    Evidence gap: no budget-execution report was gathered. In 2020 the oil benchmark in the budget was revised from $57 to $28. [THISDAY_OIL_2020]

Evidence: method, Pillar B · sources

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Institutional reforms 25%

4/4 (100/100) Draft, open for public review

4 durable reforms (capped at 4).

Counted

  • 7 Aug 2015 Treasury Single Account made mandatory for federal MDAs (deadline 15 Sep 2015). [DT_TSA_2015]
  • 7 Aug 2020 Companies and Allied Matters Act 2020. [SH_CAMA_2020]
  • 12 Nov 2020 Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act 2020. [SH_BOFIA_2020]
  • 16 Aug 2021 Petroleum Industry Act 2021. [SH_PIA_2021]

Listed, not counted

Evidence: method, Pillar C · sources

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Sources for this card (24)
  1. AIICO_MAY2023 AIICO Capital, 7 Jun 2023, 'Monthly Financial Market Update - May 2023' (unofficial cash rate mostly N735-740/$; NAFEX close N465.32; I&E N464.67) (2023-06-07)
  2. CBN_CIRC_2015 CBN circular TED/FEM/FPC/GEN/01/010, 23 Jun 2015 (items 'not valid for foreign exchange'; Wayback copy) (2015-06-23)
  3. DT_TSA_2015 Daily Trust, 7 Sep 2015, 'Treasury Single Acct: Buhari gives MDAs Sept 15 deadline' (2015-09-07) accessed 2026-10-02
  4. DT_WM_50BN Daily Trust, 26 Feb 2024, 'How $50bn equivalent was printed and fritted in ways and means' (CBN Act s.38(2); W&M N856bn to N23.8trn) (2024-02-26) accessed 2026-10-02
  5. EI_OIL Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 via Our World in Data, annual crude price (nominal US$/m3; divided by 6.2898 to get US$/bbl) (2026)
  6. FMINO_BORDER_2019 Federal Ministry of Information, 2019, 'Border closure: higher import revenue, lower fuel consumption, increased rice production among gains - FG' (government claim) (2019)
  7. IMF_DEBT IMF World Economic Outlook via DataMapper API, General government gross debt (% of GDP), GGXWDG_NGDP (latest vintage served on 1 Oct 2026; 2026+ are IMF projections) (2026-10-01)
  8. KRUGMAN_TAYLOR_1978 Paul Krugman & Lance Taylor, 'Contractionary effects of devaluation', Journal of International Economics 8(3), 1978, pp.445-456 (RePEc record) (1978)
  9. NAIRAMETRICS_FLOAT_2016 Nairametrics, 20 Jun 2016, 'Results are in: Nigeria's new official exchange rate after currency float' (official ~N281.85/$; parallel ~N345/$) (2016-06-20)
  10. NAIRAMETRICS_IE_2017 Nairametrics, 21 Apr 2017, 'CBN creates yet another FX window for investors & exporters' (I&E window, circular of 21 Apr 2017) (2017-04-21)
  11. NAIRAMETRICS_WM_2023 Nairametrics, 9 May 2023 (Senate approves securitisation of N22.7trn Ways & Means) (2023-05-09)
  12. SH_BOFIA_2020 State House, 'President Buhari Assents to Banks and Other Financial Institution Act 2020' (12 Nov 2020; repeals BOFIA 1991) (2020-11-13) accessed 2026-10-02
  13. SH_CAMA_2020 State House, 'After 30 Years, President Buhari Signs Amended Companies and Allied Matters Act' (7 Aug 2020) (2020-08-07) accessed 2026-10-02
  14. SH_PIA_2021 State House, 'President Buhari Signs Petroleum Industry Bill into Law' (16 Aug 2021) (2021-08-16) accessed 2026-10-02
  15. THECABLE_2023 TheCable, 14 Jun 2023 (CBN unifies all FX windows) (2023-06-14)
  16. THISDAY_OIL_2020 ThisDay, 2 Jun 2020 (2020 revised budget oil benchmark $25 to $28) (2020-06-02)
  17. THISDAY_SUSP_2022 ThisDay, 24 Jan 2022, 'FG Suspends Planned Fuel Subsidy Removal Indefinitely' (2022-01-24) accessed 2026-10-02; Reuters version returned HTTP 401
  18. TRIBUNE_520_2017 Nigerian Tribune, Feb 2017, 'Naira crashes to N520/dollar as CBN plans increased supply' (official ~N305.50) (2017-02-20)
  19. TRIBUNE_WM_2022 Nigerian Tribune, 15 Aug 2022, 'FG borrows N19.3trn from CBN in 7 years' (W&M N648.26bn Jun 2015; N856.33bn Dec 2015; N2.23trn 2016; N3.31trn 2017; N5.41trn 2018; N8.72trn 2019; N13.11trn 2020; N17.46trn 2021; N19.91trn Jun 2022; CBN data) (2022-08-15)
  20. VANGUARD_CBN_NODEVAL_2015 Vanguard, Nov 2015, 'Why we ignored calls for naira devaluation, by CBN' (Emefiele: import dependence; devaluation would feed inflation - via search summary) (2015-11)
  21. WDI_CPI_1960 World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  22. WDI_FX_1960 World Bank WDI API, PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average; pre-1973 values in naira-equivalent units), Nigeria, 1960-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  23. WDI_GDP_1960 World Bank WDI API, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Nigeria, 1961-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02
  24. WDI_RESMO_1960 World Bank WDI API, FI.RES.TOTL.MO (total reserves in months of imports), Nigeria, 1977-2025 (last updated 2026-07-13) (2026-07-13) live pull saved 2026-10-02

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