Umaru Musa Yar'Adua

Economic outcomes 50%

81/100 Draft

Computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data.

Evidence: method, Pillar A · sources

Policy credibility 25%

2.5/4 (62.5/100) Draft, open for public review

2.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Its reforms lasted. The FX gap was small, then widened in the 2009 crisis (disputed). Ways & Means and budget execution are unevidenced.

1. Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit? 0.5 Evidence gap

   Evidence gap: no source found on Ways & Means balances against the CBN Act 2007 limit (5% of the previous year's revenue) in 2007-09. [DT_WM_50BN]

2. Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium? 0.5 Disputed

   Disputed. The premium was small in late 2008 (WDAS N120.65 vs BDC N125.25, about 3.8%; CBN) but widened to 16.3% in Mar 2009 (N146.02 vs N171; Proshare) during the crisis. Large, but not clearly persistent. [CBN_Q4_2008] [PROSHARE_GAP_2009]

3. Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal? 1

   Its own reforms lasted: the Fiscal Responsibility Act and Public Procurement Act (2007) and the Aug 2009 bank rescue. (It did reverse a predecessor's petrol price rise, N75 to N65, in Jun 2007.) [FRA_2007] [PPA_2007] [DAILYTRUST_2009] [VANGUARD_FUEL_TL]

4. Budgets broadly implemented as passed? 0.5 Evidence gap

   Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 2007-09.

Evidence: method, Pillar B · sources

Institutional reforms 25%

2/4 (50/100) Draft, open for public review

2 durable reforms.

Counted

• 4 Jun 2007 Public Procurement Act 2007 (Bureau of Public Procurement). [PPA_2007]
• 30 Jul 2007 Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 (borrowing limits, MTEF, Fiscal Responsibility Commission). [FRA_2007]

Listed, not counted

• 14 Aug 2009 CBN removes five bank CEOs and injects about N400bn. A crisis action, not an institution in itself (AMCON came in 2010 under Jonathan). [DAILYTRUST_2009]

Evidence: method, Pillar C · sources