Composite score87/100Draft, open for public reviewEconomic outcomes 50%, policy credibility 25%, institutional reforms 25%.
Oil contextOil tailwind (+137%)Average $4.26 a barrel in 1967-1975 vs $1.8 before (1962-1966). Shown for context; the score is not adjusted for oil. [EI_OIL]
Scored on 3 of 5 indicators. No data for public debt or reserves, so the economic score is the average of the other 3 (inflation, growth, naira stability).
Data flags
Partial data
Debt missing no debt/GDP series covers the first scored year (WDI external debt starts 1970; IMF 1990)
Reserves missing WDI months-of-imports series starts 1977
Naira stability uninformative fixed official rate (WDI)
Thin data (pre-1980)
Evidence gap on credibility Q2/Q4 (scored 0.5)
Economic outcomes 50%
93/100 Draft
Computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data (3 of 5 indicators).
Indicator scores (0 to 100), 1967-1975 (9)
Indicator
Measured
Score
Inflation
10.13% a year on average
83
Growth
6.79% a year on average
97
Naira stability
Official rate 0.7143 -> 0.6155 (₦ per $); -1.84% a year
2.5/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0.5; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Reforms lasted, but war finance stretched the central-bank limits (they were raised by decree), and the FX premium and budget execution are unevidenced.
Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?0.5Disputed
Disputed. War finance relied on the central bank: the fiduciary issue was raised from 33.5% to 50% (1967), and the Treasury Bill ceiling went from 50% of revenue to 85%, 100% and 150% (1968). The limits were raised by decree rather than breached. [DEFICIT_1965_70]
Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?0.5Evidence gap
One official rate (WDI PA.NUS.FCRF). The CBN Bullion table shows no parallel-rate data for 1973-74, so the premium cannot be checked. [WDI_FX][CBN_BULLION_2006]
Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?1
Major reforms lasted: the Indigenisation Decree (in force 1974 to 1995), the naira (Jan 1973), and the NNOC (1971, folded into the NNPC in 1977). [nyb73][NEPD_WIKI][cbnhist][NNPC_ACT_1977]
Budgets broadly implemented as passed?0.5Evidence gap
Evidence gap. In Apr 1975 the FMG threatened states with loss of grants for 'plan distortion' (New Nigerian), which suggests weak execution, but no budget-outturn data were found. [nn750407]
1969 Banking Act 1969: the core bank-regulation law until the 1991 decrees replaced it. [WB_SAP_PARAS]
May 1971 Nigerian National Oil Corporation (Decree No. 18), the state oil company. Repealed and folded into the NNPC on 1 Apr 1977. [NNPC_ACT_1977]
1 Jan 1973 Naira and kobo replace the pound (decimal currency). [cbnhist]
Mar 1973 Capital Issues Commission set up by decree. It became the SEC in 1979. [SEC_HISTORY]
Listed, not counted
1972 Nigerian Enterprises Promotion (Indigenisation) Decree. It lasted (repealed 1995), but it was an ownership mandate rather than a market or institution-strengthening reform. Not counted under GPLab's lens; the panel may decide otherwise. [nyb73][NEPD_WIKI]
