One card for two leaders. Our timeline merges Murtala Mohammed (29 Jul 1975 to 13 Feb 1976) and Olusegun Obasanjo (13 Feb 1976 to 1 Oct 1979). Murtala alone held no scored calendar year (1975 went to Gowon at 210 days), so he would be 'Too short to score' on his own; the scored years 1976-79 fall under Obasanjo. Scored here as one government, as on our timeline.
Olusegun Obasanjo's later civilian government (1999–2007) has its own card: Obasanjo, 1999–2007 →
Composite score50/100Draft, open for public reviewEconomic outcomes 50%, policy credibility 25%, institutional reforms 25%.
Oil contextOil tailwind (+191%)Average $18.09 a barrel in 1976-1979 vs $6.22 before (1971-1975). Shown for context; the score is not adjusted for oil. [EI_OIL]
Data flags
Debt external debt/GDP used (not comparable)
Thin data (pre-1980)
Evidence gap on credibility Q1/Q4 (scored 0.5)
Economic outcomes 50%
51/100 Draft
Computed from World Bank WDI and IMF data.
Indicator scores (0 to 100), 1976-1979 (4)
Indicator
Measured
Score
Inflation
18.2% a year on average
56
Growth
4.02% a year on average
57
Naira stability
Official rate 0.6266 -> 0.604 (₦ per $); -1.22% a year
100
Public debt
WDI external debt/GDP (not comparable with the IMF general-government series): 3.7 -> 13.2% of GDP; 3.18 pp a year
2/4 (Q1 0.5; Q2 0; Q3 1; Q4 0.5). Reforms lasted, but the parallel premium ran at about 59-80% in 1977-79, and central-bank financing and budget execution are unevidenced.
Avoided central-bank financing of deficits beyond the legal limit?0.5Evidence gap
Evidence gap: no source found on CBN financing against the legal limit in 1976-79.
Avoided multiple official exchange rates and a large, persistent parallel premium?0
No. Large, persistent parallel premium: official US$1.550, 1.575 and 1.658 per naira vs parallel 0.976, 0.877 and 0.943 in 1977-79 (World Bank Table 9), a premium of about 59-80%. [WB_SAP_PARAS]
Major announced reforms survived 12+ months without reversal?1
Reforms lasted: Operation Feed the Nation (1976) ran until it was replaced by the Green Revolution (1980). The NNPC (1977) and SEC (1979) remain. [nyb7778][NNPC_ACT_1977][SEC_HISTORY][nn800523]
Budgets broadly implemented as passed?0.5Evidence gap
Evidence gap: no budget-execution data found for 1976-79.
1 Apr 1977 NNPC Act 1977: NNOC merged with the petroleum ministry's regulatory arm. [NNPC_ACT_1977]
1979 SEC Decree No. 71 of 1979 turns the Capital Issues Commission into the Securities and Exchange Commission (operating from 1980). [SEC_HISTORY]
Listed, not counted
1978 Land Use Decree: durable, but it vested land in state governments, a contested reform from a market-leaning view. Not counted; no source was gathered for this card.
